Colorado Rockies vs Detroit Tigers Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 9/10/2024

• Date: September 10, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bradley Blalock - Rockies
  • Keider Montero - Tigers

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

As the Detroit Tigers prepare to host the Colorado Rockies on September 10, 2024, both teams are looking to capitalize on recent successes, albeit with very different narratives. The Tigers, currently at 73-71, are positioned mid-pack and are coming off an impressive 9-1 victory over the Athletics in their last game on September 8. Conversely, the Rockies sit at the bottom of the standings with a dismal 54-90 record, but managed a surprising 4-1 win against the Brewers in their last outing.

In this interleague matchup, the Tigers will send Keider Montero to the mound. Montero has had a challenging season with a 4-6 record and a 5.47 ERA, but his 4.42 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and could improve. He’s expected to pitch around 5.0 innings while allowing 2.3 earned runs and striking out a modest 5.0 batters. Compounding the challenge for Montero is the Rockies' high-strikeout offense, which ranks 2nd in the league.

The Rockies will counter with Bradley Blalock, who also has struggled this year, posting a 1-2 record and a 5.40 ERA. Blalock's recent outing was not his best, as he allowed 4 earned runs in 5 innings with 6 walks. His high walk rate of 11.9% could be exploited by a Tigers offense that, while ranked 25th overall, has shown flashes of power.

The projections favor the Tigers with a high implied team total of 4.79 runs for today's game, compared to the Rockies’ low total of 3.71 runs. The leading MLB projection system indicates that Detroit is expected to score around 4.66 runs, emphasizing their potential advantage in this matchup against a struggling Colorado squad. With the series opener set to unfold at Comerica Park, it promises to be a crucial contest for the Tigers as they aim to build momentum.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Compared to average, Bradley Blalock has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an -8.6 fewer adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Brendan Rodgers has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (75% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th on the lineup card today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Brendan Rodgers hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 98th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 2nd-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

With 6 hitters of the opposite hand in the opposing team's projected lineup, Keider Montero will have a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Zach McKinstry can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Jake Rogers, the Tigers's expected catcher in today's matchup, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 42 of their last 68 games (+13.90 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 36 games (+7.75 Units / 20% ROI)
• Spencer Torkelson has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 21 games (+8.40 Units / 40% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 4.05 vs Detroit Tigers 4.72

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.