Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants Prediction For 7/28/2024

Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants Details

• Date: July 28, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Austin Gomber - Rockies
  • Jordan Hicks - Giants

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

The San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies are set to clash on July 28, 2024, at Oracle Park in what will be the fourth game of their series. Both teams are enduring tough seasons, with the Giants holding a 51-55 record and the Rockies struggling even more at 38-67. This National League West matchup features two pitchers with contrasting profiles: Jordan Hicks for the Giants and Austin Gomber for the Rockies.

Jordan Hicks, a right-handed pitcher, has had an up-and-down season with a 4-7 record and a 4.01 ERA. Although Hicks's ERA is above average, his 4.80 xERA suggests he has been somewhat fortunate and could regress. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, forecasts Hicks to pitch 5.5 innings, allowing 2.0 earned runs while striking out 5.7 batters. Despite his peripheral indicators, he faces a Rockies offense that ranks 14th in MLB, which is a solid but not overwhelming challenge.

On the other side, Austin Gomber, a lefty, will take the mound for Colorado. Gomber's 2-6 record and 4.70 ERA indicate an average performance level. Projections have him pitching 5.2 innings, giving up 2.7 earned runs, and striking out 5.0 batters. Gomber’s main struggle has been control, as he allows a high number of hits and walks. He will be up against a Giants offense that ranks 15th in batting average and 23rd in home runs, suggesting a middling but occasionally powerful lineup.

The Giants have a significant bullpen advantage, ranking 1st in MLB compared to the Rockies' 23rd. This disparity could be crucial in a game with a low total of 7.5 runs. Additionally, the Giants are a big betting favorite with a moneyline of -195, translating to an implied win probability of 64%. Their offense, although average overall, could exploit Gomber’s weaknesses, especially considering their high walk rate against his control issues.

Tyler Fitzgerald has been hot for the Giants, boasting a .440 batting average and 1.693 OPS over the last week. Conversely, Jacob Stallings has been the standout for the Rockies, hitting .389 with a 1.222 OPS in the past seven days.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Elias Diaz has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (87% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th in the batting order today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Brendan Rodgers has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Jordan Hicks has used his fastball a lot this year, though: 55.9% of the time, checking in at the 100th percentile.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Mike Yastrzemski has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Patrick Bailey (the Giants's expected catcher in today's game) is considered to be an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 45 of their last 77 games (+10.10 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 away games (+5.80 Units / 44% ROI)
• Matt Chapman has hit the Runs Over in 25 of his last 36 games (+17.95 Units / 46% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.35 vs San Francisco Giants 4.37

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.