Colorado Rockies at Oakland Athletics Pick For 5/22/2024

Colorado Rockies vs Oakland Athletics Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 22, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Austin Gomber - Rockies
  • Mitch Spence - Athletics

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated Interleague matchup, the Oakland Athletics will face off against the Colorado Rockies at Oakland Coliseum on May 22, 2024. The Athletics, who hold a disappointing 20-30 record this season, are hoping to turn their fortunes around against the struggling Rockies, who currently sit at 15-32.

Taking the mound for the Athletics is right-handed pitcher Mitch Spence, who has had a decent season thus far. Spence boasts a 3-2 win/loss record with a 3.90 ERA. Although his xFIP suggests he has been unlucky, he is expected to perform better going forward. On the other side, the Rockies will rely on left-handed pitcher Austin Gomber, who has shown great form with a 3.02 ERA. However, his xFIP indicates that he may regress in future performances.

This game marks the second in the series between these two teams. In their last meeting, the Athletics emerged victorious with a close 5-4 win. Both teams had a chance to win, as reflected in the Moneyline prices and implied win probabilities. The Athletics had a slight edge with a -125 Moneyline and a 53% implied win probability, while the Rockies had a +105 Moneyline and a 47% implied win probability.

Offensively, the Athletics have struggled this season, ranking 26th in MLB in overall performance. Their team batting average is a lowly 30th in the league, but they have shown some prowess in stolen bases, ranking 5th. The Rockies, meanwhile, have an average offense, ranking 18th overall. They have struggled in team home runs and stolen bases, ranking 24th and 30th, respectively.

Both teams have had their fair share of struggles, but the Athletics have the advantage in terms of projected win probability. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Athletics a 55% chance of winning, while the Rockies have a 45% chance. The current moneyline odds also suggest a close game, with the Athletics favored at -130 and the Rockies at +110.

As the game unfolds, keep an eye on the pitching matchup between Spence and Gomber. Spence's low-walk approach may be challenged by the Rockies' offense, which ranks among the least walks in MLB. The Athletics will look to capitalize on their home-field advantage and the offensive contributions of their best hitter, Brent Rooker. The Rockies will rely on Ryan McMahon, their standout performer, to lead them to victory.

With a projected average team total of 4.19 runs, the Athletics aim to outscore the Rockies, who have an average implied team total of 3.81 runs. However, THE BAT X projects both teams to score below their averages, with the Athletics projected at 4.03 runs and the Rockies at 3.85 runs.

As the game unfolds, expect an intense battle between these two struggling teams. The Athletics will seek to build on their recent victory, while the Rockies will look to bounce back. With the odds and projections favoring the Athletics, they have a good chance of securing another win in this close contest.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

The Colorado Rockies outfield defense projects as the best out of every team today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Since the start of last season, Charlie Blackmon's 5.1% Barrel%, a reliable metric for measuring power, places him in the 21st percentile among his peers.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Compared to their .315 overall projected rate, the .297 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected batting order today suggests this version of the lineup quite a bit missing some of their usual firepower.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Mitch Spence will allow an average of 1.2 singles in today's outing.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

J.D. Davis's speed has dropped off this year. His 25.73 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.85 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Oakland Athletics bullpen projects as the 5th-worst in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.90 Units / 58% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 16 games (+5.10 Units / 32% ROI)
• Ryan McMahon has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+9.95 Units / 88% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.86 vs Oakland Athletics 3.97

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