Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewers Pick & Prediction – 9/6/2024

• Date: September 6, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryan Feltner - Rockies
  • Frankie Montas - Brewers

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to host the Colorado Rockies on September 6, 2024, the stakes are high for the Brewers, who are in the thick of a playoff race with an impressive record of 81-59. In contrast, the Rockies sit at 52-89, struggling through a disappointing season. This matchup marks the first game of the series, and with the Brewers ranked 9th in MLB offensively, they will look to capitalize on their home-field advantage at American Family Field.

On the mound, the Brewers will start Frankie Montas, a right-handed pitcher who ranks as the 85th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. Montas has had an average year with a 4.70 ERA and a 6-9 record, but he projects to strike out 7.1 batters while allowing only 2.2 earned runs today, showcasing his potential to dominate against a Rockies offense that ranks 3rd in strikeouts.

Ryan Feltner, also a right-handed pitcher for the Rockies, will be looking to turn around his own disappointing season, with a 1-10 record and a poor 5.11 ERA. While Feltner's projections suggest he could perform slightly better, his overall effectiveness remains in question.

Given the Brewers' strong offensive capabilities and the Rockies' struggles, Milwaukee is positioned as a significant favorite, with a high implied team total of 4.45 runs compared to Colorado's 3.05. This clash promises to be an intriguing matchup, particularly for bettors eyeing the Brewers' potential to build on their successful season.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

The Colorado Rockies infield defense grades out as the 2nd-strongest out of every team in action today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

There has been a decrease in Charlie Blackmon's average exit velocity this year, from 86.4 mph last year to 84.2 mph now

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Brendan Rodgers hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Compared to league average, Frankie Montas has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an extra 3.7 adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Colorado's #2-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Sal Frelick, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Milwaukee Brewers have been the luckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse in future games

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 72 of their last 133 games (+15.65 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 away games (+5.00 Units / 48% ROI)
• Brenton Doyle has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+8.70 Units / 37% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.49 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.43

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