Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigers Pick & Prediction – 9/12/2024

• Date: September 12, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryan Feltner - Rockies
  • Tarik Skubal - Tigers

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

As the Detroit Tigers prepare to face off against the Colorado Rockies on September 12, 2024, at Comerica Park, the stakes may not be high in the playoff race, but both teams have something to prove. The Tigers, with a record of 75-71, are having an average season, while the Rockies sit at a dismal 54-92. Despite the Rockies' struggles, they have shown flashes of offense, ranking 21st overall in MLB this season.

The last time these teams met, the Tigers secured a decisive victory, further solidifying their dominance in this series, which will be their third matchup. The Tigers will send their ace, Tarik Skubal, to the mound. Skubal has been nothing short of stellar this season, boasting a 16-4 record and a remarkable 2.53 ERA. His strikeout potential is particularly noteworthy, as he projects to fan 8.2 batters on average today against a Rockies lineup that ranks 2nd in the league for most strikeouts. This matchup favors Skubal significantly, considering he is in the elite tier of starting pitchers, ranked 2nd in MLB.

On the other hand, Ryan Feltner is taking the ball for the Rockies. With a 2-10 record and a 4.96 ERA, Feltner has struggled this season. Projections suggest he will pitch around 4.9 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs on average—an indicator of a below-average performance.

While the Tigers' offense has been ranked 25th overall, they are facing a Rockies bullpen that ranks 21st, which could present an opportunity for the Tigers to exploit their weaknesses. With a high implied team total of 4.53 runs for the game, the Tigers are favored to come out on top against a Rockies team that has been unable to find consistent success this season.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

With 6 hitters who hit from the other side in the opposing team's projected offense, Ryan Feltner will be in a tough position while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Toglia in the 13th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Today, Brendan Rodgers is at a disadvantage facing the league's 2nd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.8% rate (98th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Jace Jung has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (53% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Detroit Tigers have 4 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Dillon Dingler, Trey Sweeney, Jace Jung, Spencer Torkelson).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 39 of their last 58 games (+19.40 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 44 of their last 76 away games (+6.00 Units / 6% ROI)
• Colt Keith has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 42 games (+10.85 Units / 13% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.15 vs Detroit Tigers 4.72

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