Colorado Rockies at Cincinnati Reds Pick & Prediction – 7/9/2024

Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds Details

• Date: July 9, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cal Quantrill - Rockies
  • Nick Lodolo - Reds

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds will host the Colorado Rockies on July 9, 2024, at Great American Ball Park for the second game of their series. The Reds took the first game with a convincing 6-0 win, showcasing their dominance against a struggling Rockies squad. Currently, Cincinnati holds a 43-48 record, reflecting a below-average season, while Colorado's 32-59 record positions them near the bottom of the league.

On the mound for the Reds will be left-handed pitcher Nick Lodolo, who has been one of the few bright spots for Cincinnati this season. Lodolo boasts an impressive 2.96 ERA, ranking as the 42nd best starting pitcher out of approximately 350 in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. However, his 3.74 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat fortunate and may not maintain his current performance level. Lodolo's projections for today's game include 4.9 innings pitched, 2.1 earned runs allowed, and 5.9 strikeouts.

The Rockies will counter with right-hander Cal Quantrill, who has had a mixed season with a 3.77 ERA over 18 starts. Like Lodolo, Quantrill's 4.40 xFIP indicates that he has benefited from some luck. Quantrill is projected to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing 3.1 earned runs and striking out 5.0 batters.

Offensively, the Reds have struggled, ranking 24th in MLB overall and 27th in team batting average. Despite these struggles, they have excelled on the basepaths, leading the league in stolen bases. Elly De La Cruz has been a standout, contributing 62 runs, 15 home runs, and 45 stolen bases with a 0.813 OPS. Spencer Steer has also been hot lately, posting a 1.088 OPS over the last week.

The Rockies' offense ranks 17th overall, with Brenton Doyle being their standout performer. Doyle has a solid 0.780 OPS this season and has been on fire over the last week with a 0.474 batting average and 1.513 OPS.

As the game approaches, the Reds are favored with a moneyline of -170, reflecting an implied win probability of 61%. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, also projects the Reds as favorites with a similar win probability of 60%. Given the Reds' recent form and superior pitching matchup, they appear to have the edge in this National League contest.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

In his last GS, Cal Quantrill didn't have his best stuff when it came to striking hitters out and was only able to post 2 Ks.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

Elias Diaz has been very fortunate when it comes to with his wOBA this year; his .337 mark is quite a bit higher than his .276 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

The Colorado Rockies bullpen profiles as the 8th-worst in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Nick Lodolo is projected to throw 80 pitches today by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 4th-least on the slate today.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Edwin Rios has big-time HR ability (77th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (34.1% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Cal Quantrill has a pitch-to-contact profile (2nd percentile K%) — great news for Rios.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

Jeimer Candelario pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.2% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 34 games at home (+13.00 Units / 33% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 62 games (+11.00 Units / 17% ROI)
• Jeimer Candelario has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 41 games (+11.60 Units / 23% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 4.24 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.96

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.