Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves Prediction For 9/3/2024

• Date: September 3, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Freeland - Rockies
  • Chris Sale - Braves

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

The Atlanta Braves will host the Colorado Rockies at Truist Park on September 3, 2024, in the first game of a series between two teams trending in opposite directions. The Braves currently hold a record of 74-63, showcasing an above-average season, while the Rockies struggle at 51-87, marking a difficult year. Both teams are coming off of a loss in their last outing, but one team has to win in this National League matchup.

On the mound, the Braves will send out Chris Sale, who has been nothing short of exceptional this season. The left-handed pitcher boasts a 15-3 record and an impressive ERA of 2.58, making him the 4th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. Sale projects to pitch approximately 6.1 innings, allowing only 1.7 earned runs and striking out 9.7 batters on average—elite numbers that could pose significant challenges for the Rockies' offense, which ranks 3rd in the league for strikeouts.

Kyle Freeland will take the mound for the Rockies, but his 4-6 record and a troubling ERA of 5.51 indicate he hasn’t been as reliable this season. His projections suggest he may pitch 5.1 innings and allow around 3.1 earned runs, but with below-average strikeout capabilities, he could struggle against the Braves' lineup.

The Braves' offense has been about average, ranking 13th best overall, but they excel in power, sitting 10th in home runs. Meanwhile, the Rockies also rank 10th in home runs but sit lower in overall offensive rankings at 19th. With Chris Sale’s elite status on the mound and a powerful Braves lineup ready to capitalize, Atlanta appears favored to take this matchup as they aim to solidify their position in the standings.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Kyle Freeland's 91-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a significant 2.8-mph increase from last season's 88.2-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Brenton Doyle's true offensive skill to be a .301, providing some evidence that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .043 deviation between that figure and his actual .344 wOBA.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Colorado's 88.5-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the worst in MLB: #22 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Compared to league average, Chris Sale has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an extra 6.9 adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Ramon Laureano is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 76% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Michael Harris II hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 95th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 5th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 75 of their last 120 games (+29.50 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 away games (+4.75 Units / 37% ROI)
• Marcell Ozuna has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 21 games (+10.10 Units / 26% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.13 vs Atlanta Braves 5.09

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