• Date: October 15, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tanner Bibee - Guardians
  • Gerrit Cole - Yankees

Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

As the American League Championship Series continues, the New York Yankees host the Cleveland Guardians at Yankee Stadium on October 15, 2024. The Yankees, with their high-octane offense ranked 3rd in MLB, aim to leverage their home field advantage and extend their dominance against the Guardians. The Yankees' position as a solid playoff contender is bolstered by their projected win probability of 61% for today's matchup, as per the latest odds.

On the mound, the Yankees will send their ace, Gerrit Cole, to start. Cole, ranked as the 30th best starting pitcher in MLB according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, has been having a fine season with an ERA of 3.41. His ability to limit earned runs is a key factor, although projections suggest he has been a bit lucky this year. In contrast, the Guardians' Tanner Bibee, ranked 41st, brings his own skills to the table. Despite being a high-flyball pitcher, his solid control could help mitigate the Yankees' patient approach this season.

While the Yankees tout one of the most powerful offenses with the 2nd most home runs, their ability to draw walks might face a challenge against Bibee's commendable control. The Guardians, on the other hand, rely on their speed and rank 5th in stolen bases, which could play a strategic role against the Yankees' 10th ranked bullpen.

Power rankings give the Guardians’ bullpen the edge, listing them as the top unit in MLB. However, the Yankees' offensive prowess and the combination of Cole's starting strength position them as favorites. The projected total of just 7.0 runs suggests a low-scoring affair, emphasizing the importance of every baserunner and opportunity in this critical game of the series.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Out of all the teams playing today, the best infield defense is that of the Cleveland Guardians.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Andres Gimenez has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (53% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Cleveland Guardians projected batting order grades out as the worst on the slate today in terms of overall batting ability.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gerrit Cole to throw 83 pitches in today's game (most of the day), taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

• Pitchers who throw a lot of pitches are more likely to go deeper into the game, record more outs, and generate more strikeouts.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Yankees' bullpen ranks as the 10th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 75 of their last 133 games (+14.95 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 78 away games (+16.40 Units / 19% ROI)
• Aaron Judge has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 24 games at home (+11.45 Units / 48% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 3.47 vs New York Yankees 4.24

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