Cleveland Guardians vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Pick & Preview – 9/6/2024

• Date: September 6, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Matthew Boyd - Guardians
  • Landon Knack - Dodgers

Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

On September 6, 2024, the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the Cleveland Guardians at Dodger Stadium in what marks the first game of their interleague series. Both teams are having solid seasons, with the Dodgers holding an 84-56 record, while the Guardians sit at 80-60. The Dodgers are currently projected to start Landon Knack, who has seen mixed results this year, boasting a 2-2 record and an impressive 3.00 ERA, although his 4.38 xFIP suggests he might be due for a regression. Meanwhile, Matthew Boyd, projected to start for the Guardians, has been effective with a 2.38 ERA in four starts, ranking as the 66th best starting pitcher in MLB.

The Dodgers have one of the league's most powerful offenses, ranking 3rd in home runs this season with 139 long balls. This could spell trouble for Boyd, a high-flyball pitcher with a 44% flyball rate. Given the Dodgers' offensive prowess, they may be able to capitalize on Boyd's flyball tendencies to put runs on the board. Furthermore, the Dodgers’ offense ranks as the 3rd best overall in MLB, suggesting they have the underlying talent to continue their success at the plate.

In terms of betting, the Dodgers are favored with a moneyline of -150, indicating an implied team total of 4.89 runs. This aligns with their strong offensive ranking, even as they face a competent Guardians bullpen that ranks 5th in the league. The game total is set at 9.0 runs, reflecting expectations for a competitive matchup. With both teams in contention for playoff positioning, this game carries significant weight as they look to solidify their standings heading into the final stretch of the season.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Matthew Boyd's change-up utilization has increased by 6.7% from last season to this one (18.7% to 25.4%) .

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Typically, batters like Jose Ramirez who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Landon Knack.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.3% — 99th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league's 8th-deepest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Landon Knack's 2435-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 88th percentile among all SPs.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Tommy Edman has negatively regressed with his Barrel%; his 5.1% rate last season has dropped to 0% this year.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Los Angeles Dodgers projected batting order projects as the 2nd-strongest on the slate today in terms of overall offensive skill.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 42 games (+10.70 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 32 away games (+10.75 Units / 29% ROI)
• Jhonkensy Noel has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 17 games (+8.10 Units / 48% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4.91 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.72

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