Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction & Picks 6/24/2024

Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles Details

• Date: June 24, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tanner Bibee - Guardians
  • Cade Povich - Orioles

Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

The June 24 showdown between two American League heavyweights, the Baltimore Orioles and the Cleveland Guardians, promises to be thrilling. Both teams are enjoying stellar seasons, with the Orioles boasting a 49-28 record and the Guardians slightly better at 49-26. This is the first game in their series, and it's set to be a pivotal matchup given their strong standings.

The Orioles' potent offense, which ranks 2nd in MLB, will be tested against Tanner Bibee, Cleveland's projected starter. Bibee has been excellent this season, holding a 3.65 ERA and emerging as the 23rd best starting pitcher according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Despite his solid ERA, his 3.06 SIERA suggests he's been slightly unlucky, and he could outperform his season stats. Bibee, a right-hander, will face an Orioles lineup that leads MLB in home runs and ranks 5th in batting average. Given Bibee's high flyball rate, Baltimore's power hitters could capitalize.

On the flip side, the Orioles will start left-hander Cade Povich, who has been somewhat fortunate this year. Though his 3.94 ERA is respectable, his 6.12 xFIP indicates he might be due for regression. Povich's low strikeout rate (13.0 K%) could struggle against a Guardians offense that ranks 3rd in least strikeouts in MLB. However, the Guardians' offense is more middling overall, ranked 13th in MLB, which could give Povich some leeway.

Baltimore's bullpen is ranked 11th, while Cleveland's is the best in MLB. These late-game arms could play a crucial role in what is projected to be a close contest. Betting markets reflect this, with Baltimore's moneyline at -115 (implied 51% win probability) and Cleveland's at -105 (implied 49% win probability).

Gunnar Henderson has been red-hot for the Orioles over the past week, hitting .333 with a 1.175 OPS, while Josh Naylor has been equally impressive for the Guardians, posting a .400 batting average and a 1.303 OPS in the same span. Both teams will look to their star hitters to gain an edge in this tightly contested matchup.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Tanner Bibee will record an average of 5.9 strikeouts in today's outing.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Andres Gimenez has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (85% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (40.6% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Cade Povich has a reverse platoon split and is fortunate enough to be facing 6 opposite-handed hitters in today's game.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The 2nd-best projected offense of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall hitting ability belongs to the Baltimore Orioles.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 24 of their last 36 games (+15.55 Units / 37% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 73 games (+16.62 Units / 18% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 40 games (+7.95 Units / 12% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4.14 vs Baltimore Orioles 4.08

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