Cleveland Guardians vs Atlanta Braves Betting Pick & Prediction & Preview

• Date: April 28, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ben Lively - Guardians
  • Bryce Elder - Braves
• Run Line: Guardians 1.5 -135, Braves -1.5 115
• Money Line: Guardians 150, Braves -170
• Total (Over/Under): 9

Cleveland Guardians vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Cleveland Guardians - 39%
• Atlanta Braves - 61%

Projected Win %:

• Cleveland Guardians - 38.66%
• Atlanta Braves - 61.34%

Cleveland Guardians vs Atlanta Braves Game Preview & Prediction

In an exciting MLB matchup scheduled for April 28, 2024, the Atlanta Braves will be hosting the Cleveland Guardians at Truist Park. This Interleague game promises to be a thrilling contest between two teams having a great season.

The Braves, with a record of 18-7, have been outstanding this year and currently rank as the #1 team in MLB. Their offense has been a major factor in their success, ranking first in team batting average and home runs. Led by their best hitter, who has played in games, the Braves have been an offensive powerhouse.

On the other hand, the Guardians have also been impressive this season, boasting a record of 19-8. While their offense ranks lower in comparison, they have excelled in stolen bases, ranking seventh in MLB. Their best hitter, who has played in games, has been a key contributor to their success.

Both teams will be sending right-handed pitchers to the mound. The Braves are projected to start Bryce Elder, who has had a fantastic season with a 1-0 record and a remarkable 0.00 ERA. However, his peripheral indicator, the 3.22 xFIP, suggests that he may regress going forward. Meanwhile, the Guardians will counter with Ben Lively, who holds a 0-1 record and a solid 2.38 ERA. Like Elder, Lively's 3.23 FIP indicates that he may not be able to sustain his strong performance.

In terms of pitching matchups, Elder's low-strikeout style may encounter challenges against the Guardians, who have the fewest strikeouts in MLB. Additionally, Elder's high groundball rate may not be as effective against a Guardians offense with limited power. On the other hand, Lively's high-strikeout ability could pose difficulties for a Braves lineup that ranks sixth in strikeouts. However, the Braves' power-hitting lineup, leading MLB in home runs, could take advantage of Lively's tendency to generate flyballs.

As for the betting odds, the Braves are the favorites with a moneyline of -175, implying a 61% chance of victory. Meanwhile, the Guardians find themselves as underdogs with a moneyline of +150, giving them a 39% chance of winning. The current Game Total is set at 9.0 runs, indicating the potential for a high-scoring game.

With their impressive rankings and offensive firepower, the Braves appear to have the edge in this matchup. However, baseball is an unpredictable game, and anything can happen on any given day. As fans eagerly await this game, both teams will be aiming to continue their successful seasons and secure a victory on the field.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Ben Lively has had some very good luck with his strikeouts since the start of last season, notching an 8.37 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 7.95 — a 0.42 K/9 discrepancy.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Hitters such as Jose Ramirez with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Bryce Elder who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Estevan Florial hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 85th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 5th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Among all starters, Bryce Elder's fastball velocity of 89 mph is in the 3rd percentile since the start of last season.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

As a switch-hitter who bats worse from the 0 side of the dish, Ozzie Albies will have a tough time against Ben Lively and his large platoon split in today's game.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 58 games (+13.70 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 71 of their last 130 games (+10.05 Units / 7% ROI)

Guardians vs Braves Prediction: Guardians 4.24 - Braves 5.12

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.