Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 14, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ben Lively - Guardians
  • Jack Leiter - Rangers

Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

In an American League matchup, the Texas Rangers will face off against the Cleveland Guardians on May 14, 2024, at Globe Life Field. The Rangers, with a season record of 22-21, are having an average season, while the Guardians boast a great season with a record of 26-16.

On the mound for the Rangers is right-handed pitcher Jack Leiter, who has started two games this year. Leiter's ERA of 12.91 is quite high, but his 5.34 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. However, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Leiter is ranked as the #250 best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers, making him one of the worst in the league.

Opposing Leiter is right-handed pitcher Ben Lively of the Guardians. Lively has started five games this season and has an impressive ERA of 2.63. However, his 4.20 xFIP indicates that he may have been lucky and could perform worse going forward.

The Rangers offense ranks #2 in MLB in team batting average and #5 in team home runs, showcasing their talent at the plate. On the other hand, their stolen bases rank #25, indicating room for improvement in that aspect. The Guardians offense ranks #14 in team batting average and #7 in stolen bases, but they have the fewest home runs in the league at #30.

Based on the current odds, the Rangers have a high implied team total of 4.50 runs, while the Guardians also have a high implied team total of 4.50 runs. The game total is set at 9.0 runs, indicating expectations of a high-scoring game.

Considering the pitching matchup, Leiter's low strikeout rate and high flyball percentage may give the Guardians an advantage, as they have the fewest strikeouts in MLB. However, the Rangers' powerful offense, ranking among the top teams in home runs, could pose a challenge for Lively, who has a high flyball percentage.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

The Cleveland Guardians infield defense projects as the best among all the teams today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

The Texas Rangers have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Josh Naylor can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Today, Estevan Florial is at a disadvantage facing the league's 6th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.6% rate (87th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Jack Leiter has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 10 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Nathaniel Lowe is an extreme groundball batter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Cleveland (#1-best on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Projected catcher Jonah Heim profiles as an elite pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Run Line in 22 of their last 33 games (+13.00 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 65 of their last 118 games (+8.25 Units / 6% ROI)
• Corey Seager has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 27 games (+13.95 Units / 44% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4.79 vs Texas Rangers 5.04

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