Cleveland Guardians at Miami Marlins Prediction For 6/7/2024

Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins Details

• Date: June 7, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Allen - Guardians
  • Ryan Weathers - Marlins

Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

On June 7, 2024, the Miami Marlins will face off against the Cleveland Guardians at LoanDepot Park. As the home team, the Marlins will look to improve their struggling record of 21-41 this season, while the Guardians aim to continue their impressive run with a record of 40-21. This interleague matchup presents an interesting clash between the Marlins' poor performance and the Guardians' success.

The Marlins are projected to start left-handed pitcher Ryan Weathers, who has a record of 3-5 and an impressive ERA of 3.41 this season. Despite his solid performance, Weathers is ranked as the #175 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. On the other hand, the Guardians are projected to start left-handed pitcher Logan Allen, who has a record of 6-3 but an ERA of 5.83. Our Power Rankings consider Allen as one of the worst pitchers in MLB.

Weathers has started 12 games this year, averaging 5.5 innings with an expectation of allowing 2.6 earned runs. He projects to strike out 4.8 batters but allow 5.4 hits and 1.7 walks on average. Allen, also with 12 starts, has similar projections, averaging 5.5 innings and 2.8 earned runs. He is expected to strike out 4.9 batters but allow 6.0 hits and 1.7 walks on average.

The Marlins offense ranks as the second-worst in MLB this season, with a low team batting average and a lack of home runs and stolen bases. In contrast, the Guardians offense ranks as average, with a decent team batting average and a good ranking in stolen bases. However, the Marlins bullpen is considered one of the worst in MLB, while the Guardians bullpen is ranked as the third-best.

Analyzing the matchup, Weathers, a high-groundball pitcher, will face a Guardians offense that lacks power. While this may benefit the Guardians, who don't heavily rely on home runs, Weathers' ability to keep the ball on the ground could neutralize their offensive strength.

According to the current odds, the Marlins have an implied win probability of 47%, while the Guardians have a 53% chance of winning. THE BAT X projects a close game, with the Marlins having a 49% win probability and the Guardians having a 51% win probability. The average implied team total for the Marlins is 3.86 runs, while the Guardians have an average implied team total of 4.14 runs. THE BAT X projects the Marlins to score 4.26 runs on average, while the Guardians are projected to score 4.62 runs.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

The Cleveland Guardians infield defense projects as the best among every team today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Andres Gimenez is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 88% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Austin Hedges, the Guardians's expected catcher in today's game, grades out as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Throwing 93.3 adjusted pitches per GS this year on average, Ryan Weathers checks in at the 81st percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Josh Bell's footspeed has decreased this season. His 25.92 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 24.91 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins' bullpen grades out as the 4th-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 57 games (+9.55 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 52 games (+9.07 Units / 13% ROI)
• Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.70 Units / 47% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4.58 vs Miami Marlins 4.11

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