Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals Best Bet – 9/3/2024

• Date: September 3, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tanner Bibee - Guardians
  • Brady Singer - Royals

Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

The Kansas City Royals will host the Cleveland Guardians in a compelling American League Central matchup on September 3, 2024. With both teams vying for favorable positioning, the Guardians currently sit at 79-59, while the Royals are slightly behind at 75-64. This game marks the second in a series that could have implications for both teams as the season progresses.

In their last outing, the Royals were dealt a loss, which snapped a brief winning streak. The Guardians, on the other hand, are coming off a solid performance and looking to maintain their momentum. Projected starters Brady Singer for the Royals and Tanner Bibee for the Guardians will have their work cut out for them. Singer, despite a 9-9 record and a 3.36 ERA, has been somewhat lucky this season, according to his 4.38 xERA. He is known for going around 5.5 innings, but he tends to allow too many hits and walks, which could be a vulnerability against a potent Guardians lineup.

Tanner Bibee, with a 10-6 record and a 3.65 ERA, has performed well this season and can strike out batters at a high rate (26.6 K%). However, he’ll face a Royals offense that ranks as the 2nd least strikeout-prone in the league, which could neutralize Bibee's strengths.

Offensively, both teams have had their ups and downs. The Royals rank 12th overall in the league, with Bobby Witt Jr. being a recent standout, while the Guardians sit at 18th and will rely on Josh Naylor to produce. The projections indicate a close game, with the Royals’ implied team total sitting at 3.90 runs and the Guardians at 4.10 runs. This matchup is one to watch as both teams battle for every win down the stretch.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Tanner Bibee is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.4% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #26 HR venue in the league in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Brayan Rocchio's average exit velocity has fallen off of late; his 84.7-mph seasonal mark has decreased to 81.3-mph in the last two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Cleveland Guardians bullpen grades out as the 7th-best in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Brady Singer's sinker utilization has decreased by 9.5% from last year to this one (51.1% to 41.6%) .

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker less often will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Maikel Garcia is an extreme groundball hitter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Cleveland (#1-best on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Michael Massey pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.9% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game's deepest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Over in 30 of their last 50 games at home (+8.00 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 34 away games (+12.80 Units / 32% ROI)
• Brayan Rocchio has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 away games (+8.00 Units / 200% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4.92 vs Kansas City Royals 4.28

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