Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 1, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Triston McKenzie - Guardians
  • Justin Verlander - Astros
• Run Line: Guardians 1.5 -140, Astros -1.5 120
• Money Line: Guardians 150, Astros -170
• Total (Over/Under): 8.5

Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Cleveland Guardians - 39%
• Houston Astros - 61%

Projected Win %:

• Cleveland Guardians - 36.82%
• Houston Astros - 63.18%

Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros Game Preview & Prediction

In a highly anticipated American League matchup, the Houston Astros are set to take on the Cleveland Guardians at Minute Maid Park on May 1, 2024. The Astros, who are having a terrible season with a record of 10-19, will be looking to turn things around against the Guardians, who are having a great season with a record of 19-10.

The Astros are projected to start their ace, Justin Verlander, a right-handed pitcher. Verlander has been performing exceptionally well this year, with a win/loss record of 1-0 and an impressive ERA of 1.74. However, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Verlander is ranked as the #33 best starting pitcher in MLB, out of approximately 350 pitchers. While his numbers suggest he is good, his 3.85 xFIP indicates that he may have been lucky this season and could regress in future performances.

On the other side, the Guardians are projected to start Triston McKenzie, also a right-handed pitcher. McKenzie has started five games this year, with a win/loss record of 2-2 and an ERA of 4.91. Our advanced-stat Power Rankings consider McKenzie a below-average pitcher by MLB standards, and his 6.11 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could struggle going forward.

In terms of offense, the Astros have been performing well this season, ranking as the 6th best offense in MLB. They have shown strength in team batting average and home runs, ranking 14th and 9th, respectively. Meanwhile, the Guardians have an average offense, ranking 14th overall. However, their team home run ranking is concerning, as they currently sit at the bottom of the league.

Looking at the pitching matchup, Verlander's high-strikeout ability (26.8 K%) may be neutralized by the Guardians' low-strikeout offense, which has the fewest strikeouts in MLB. However, Verlander's high-walk rate (9.8 BB%) may not be fully exploited by the Guardians, who rank 6th in the league in walks. This could give Verlander the advantage in the matchup.

In terms of betting odds, the Astros are the clear favorites with a moneyline of -170, implying a 61% chance of winning. The Guardians, on the other hand, are underdogs with a moneyline of +150, giving them a 39% chance of winning.

Based on the current odds, the Astros have a higher implied team total of 4.77 runs compared to the Guardians' 3.73 runs. This suggests that the Astros are expected to have a stronger offensive performance in this game.

As the game unfolds, it will be interesting to see if the Astros can capitalize on their offensive prowess and if Verlander can continue his strong performance on the mound. The Guardians, despite their lower ranking in offensive categories, may find opportunities against Verlander's control issues. It's sure to be an exciting game between these two teams.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Triston McKenzie has used his fastball a lot this year, though: 55.9% of the time, checking in at the 100th percentile.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Extreme flyball hitters like Jose Ramirez generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Justin Verlander.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.4% — 99th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball's 9th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

The Houston Astros infield defense profiles as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Yainer Diaz has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (81% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the batting order today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Houston Astros projected offense profiles as the 4th-best of all teams on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 54 games (+13.20 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 64 of their last 116 games (+8.40 Units / 7% ROI)
• Triston McKenzie has only hit the Earned Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (-1.40 Units / -25% ROI)

Guardians vs Astros Prediction: Guardians 3.96 - Astros 4.97

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.