Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers Prediction For 7/11/2024

Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers Details

• Date: July 11, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Spencer Howard - Guardians
  • Jack Flaherty - Tigers

Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

The Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians face off on July 11, 2024, at Comerica Park for the fourth game of their series. Currently, the Guardians sit comfortably in the American League Central race with a 57-34 record, while the Tigers are struggling at 44-49.

Detroit will send Jack Flaherty to the mound. Flaherty, ranked the 38th best starting pitcher by the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, has shown flashes of brilliance with a 3.24 ERA and a 2.32 xFIP, suggesting he's been somewhat unlucky. His 5-5 record over 15 starts doesn't fully reflect his effectiveness. Though Flaherty projects to allow 2.3 earned runs and strike out 4.5 batters on average today, the Tigers' offense, ranked 26th overall, may need to step up to support him.

On the other side, the Guardians will counter with Spencer Howard, who has had a rough season with a 5.63 ERA over six starts. Howard's 4.98 xFIP indicates he's also been unlucky, but his performance has been less than stellar. THE BAT X projects Howard to pitch just 3.7 innings, allowing 2.0 earned runs and striking out 3.1 batters. Given the Tigers' impatience at the plate—they rank 5th in least walks—Howard's control issues might not be fully exploited.

The Tigers' offense has struggled in multiple facets, ranking 24th in batting average and 21st in home runs. Despite these struggles, Colt Keith has been a bright spot, hitting .423 with a 1.444 OPS over the last week.

Meanwhile, the Guardians' offense is more balanced, ranking 12th overall and 9th in both home runs and stolen bases. Angel Martinez has been hot, hitting .348 with a 1.125 OPS over the past week.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Steven Kwan has been lucky this year, posting a .410 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .311 — a .099 disparity.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

David Fry pulls many of his flyballs (35.4% — 89th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game's 5th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Jack Flaherty was firing on all cylinders in his previous outing and posted 7 strikeouts.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Carson Kelly has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (87% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today's game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The 5th-worst projected lineup of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the Detroit Tigers.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 58 games (+8.15 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 55 of their last 90 games (+16.75 Units / 15% ROI)
• Matt Vierling has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+11.95 Units / 56% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4.23 vs Detroit Tigers 4.18

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