Guardians vs Tigers Game 3 Pick For 10/9/2024

• Date: October 9, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Alex Cobb - Guardians
  • Keider Montero - Tigers

Guardians vs Tigers Game 3 Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers Game 3 Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers Game 3 Betting Preview

As the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians prepare for their October 9, 2024, matchup, both teams find themselves in a tight American League Division Series battle. The Tigers took Game 2 with a noteworthy 3-0 victory, showcasing their bullpen strength, which ranks 7th in Power Rankings, despite their offense's struggles this season.

The Tigers, with Keider Montero on the mound, aim to capitalize on his recent performance where he allowed just one earned run over three innings on September 25. Despite ranking 298th among starting pitchers, Montero’s projected 4.3 innings could be enough if Detroit's bullpen maintains its form. Montero's 18.7 K% faces an intriguing test against Cleveland's low-strikeout lineup, ranked 4th in least strikeouts, potentially tilting the balance in the Guardians' favor.

Conversely, the Guardians will counter with Alex Cobb, who stands as the 68th best pitcher. Cobb's impressive 2.76 ERA and his ability to limit walks and hits are critical as he faces Detroit's high-strikeout offense, which ranks 4th in most strikeouts. Cobb's previous outing on September 1 was stellar, with no earned runs over six innings, and he aims to replicate this performance against a struggling Tigers lineup.

Offensively, the Guardians hold an edge, with their lineup ranking 17th overall and 12th in home runs, compared to Detroit's 25th overall and 24th in home runs. Jose Ramirez, Cleveland’s standout, boasts a .278 average and an .869 OPS, while Detroit relies heavily on Riley Greene’s .817 OPS for production.

Betting markets predict a close contest, with both teams holding identical moneyline odds and a low projected game total of 7.0 runs. However, the Tigers’ recent success and bullpen prowess could provide them with a slight edge in this pivotal series clash.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

The Detroit Tigers have 6 bats in the projected batting order that will have the handedness advantage against Alex Cobb in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Jose Ramirez is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the strong outfield defense of Detroit (#1-best of the day).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Bo Naylor hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 87th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

The Detroit Tigers outfield defense grades out as the best among all the teams on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Parker Meadows has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (52% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in today's game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Jake Rogers (the Tigers's expected catcher in today's game) grades out as an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 77 games (+18.60 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 72 games (+18.50 Units / 23% ROI)
• Spencer Torkelson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 27 games (+9.20 Units / 25% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers Game 3 Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4.07 vs Detroit Tigers 3.86

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