Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox Pick & Prediction – 9/10/2024

• Date: September 10, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ben Lively - Guardians
  • Jonathan Cannon - White Sox

Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

As the Chicago White Sox prepare to host the Cleveland Guardians on September 10, 2024, both teams are coming off a matchup just a day prior, where the Guardians secured a 5-3 victory. This game is significant, not just for the rivalry, but also because the Guardians are looking to solidify their position in the postseason race while the White Sox are simply trying to salvage a dismal season.

The White Sox currently hold a record of 33-112, placing them at the bottom of the American League Central and ranking them as the 30th best offense in MLB. Their struggles are evident, particularly in their power numbers, as they rank 30th in home runs this season. In contrast, the Guardians boast a much healthier record of 82-62, with an offense that ranks 17th overall, underscoring their ability to generate runs when needed.

On the mound, Jonathan Cannon is projected to start for the White Sox. While he has shown flashes of competence, his overall ranking places him as the 271st best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating struggles throughout the season. Cannon's last outing was solid, where he went 6 innings with just 1 earned run, but his inconsistency remains a concern. He'll be opposed by Ben Lively, who, despite being considered one of the weaker pitchers in the league, has a slightly better ERA of 4.07 and a win-loss record of 11-9 this year.

Interestingly, projections suggest that the White Sox may outperform expectations today, with some models indicating a projected win probability of 43%. This could present an opportunity for bettors looking for value in an underdog situation, especially considering that the Guardians' high implied team total of 5.04 runs could lead to a higher-scoring affair. With both teams' recent performances and the current standings, this matchup promises to be compelling, particularly for those following the betting lines closely.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Ben Lively has relied on his off-speed and breaking pitches 6.1% less often this year (39.5%) than he did last season (45.6%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Bo Naylor has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.3-mph dropping to 79.5-mph in the last 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Cleveland Guardians (17.9 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the least strikeout-heavy group of hitters of all teams on the slate today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

In his previous outing, Jonathan Cannon was on point and gave up 1 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Cleveland's #1-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Nicky Lopez, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox' bullpen ranks as the worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 18 games (+1.70 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 32 away games (+13.25 Units / 36% ROI)
• Steven Kwan has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 29 games (+11.80 Units / 41% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4.97 vs Chicago White Sox 3.92

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.