Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners Betting Pick & Preview – 4/17/2024

Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners Overview

• Date: April 17, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andrew Abbott - Reds
  • Bryce Miller - Mariners
• Run Line: Reds 1.5 -185, Mariners -1.5 160
• Money Line: Reds 115, Mariners -135
• Total (Over/Under):8 -110

Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Cincinnati Reds - 45%
• Seattle Mariners - 55%

Projected Win %:

• Cincinnati Reds - 41.14%
• Seattle Mariners - 58.86%

Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners Game Preview & Prediction

On April 17, 2024, the Seattle Mariners will host the Cincinnati Reds in an Interleague matchup at T-Mobile Park. The Mariners have had a terrible season so far, with a record of 7-10, while the Reds are having a good season with a record of 9-7.

The Mariners are projected to start right-handed pitcher Bryce Miller, who has been performing excellently this year with a 2-1 win/loss record and an impressive 1.96 ERA. However, his 4.02 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could regress in future games. On the other hand, the Reds are projected to start left-handed pitcher Andrew Abbott, who also has a solid season with a 1-1 record and a 2.60 ERA. Like Miller, Abbott's 5.00 xFIP indicates potential regression in his performance.

The Mariners' offense has been struggling this season, ranking as the 25th best in MLB. Their batting average is also below average, ranking 24th in the league. However, they have shown some power, ranking 13th in team home runs. The Reds, on the other hand, have a strong offense, ranking 8th best in MLB. They excel in stolen bases, ranking 1st in the league.

Looking at the projected stats for the starting pitchers, Miller is expected to pitch around 5.5 innings, allowing an average of 2.0 earned runs, striking out 5.8 batters, but also allowing 4.4 hits and 1.4 walks. Abbott, on the other hand, is projected to pitch around 5.3 innings, allowing an average of 2.4 earned runs, striking out 5.6 batters, but also allowing 4.3 hits and 2.4 walks.

The game total for today's matchup is set at 8.0 runs, indicating an average expectation for scoring. The Mariners are favored with a moneyline of -135, implying a 55% win probability, while the Reds have a moneyline of +115, implying a 45% win probability.

In the last seven games, the Mariners' best hitter has been Jorge Polanco, who has recorded 4 runs, 5 RBIs, and 2 home runs with a 1.080 OPS. The Reds' best hitter in the same period has been Will Benson, who has recorded 3 stolen bases and has a .286 batting average with a .902 OPS.

With Abbott's low-strikeout rate facing the Mariners' high-strikeout offense, the advantage may lie with the Reds' pitcher. However, the Mariners' projected win probability is higher than their implied win probability, suggesting a potential upset.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Andrew Abbott is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.5% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #10 HR venue in the league in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Stuart Fairchild is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Tyler Stephenson has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Bryce Miller will hold the platoon advantage over 6 opposing batters in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Notching 2 dingers in the last week's worth of games, Mitch Haniger has been on fire lately.

• Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

Projected catcher Cal Raleigh profiles as an elite pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 32 of their last 60 games (+10.51 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 68 away games (+22.65 Units / 32% ROI)
• Tyler Stephenson has only hit the Hits Under in 2 of his last 10 games (-6.00 Units / -58% ROI)

Reds vs Mariners Prediction: Reds 3.56 - Mariners 4.06

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