Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 6/15/2024

Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Details

• Date: June 15, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andrew Abbott - Reds
  • Bryse Wilson - Brewers

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers (40-29) host the Cincinnati Reds (34-35) on June 15, 2024, at American Family Field in the second game of their series. The Brewers are enjoying a strong season, currently holding a better record and standing compared to the Reds, who are performing at an average level. Yesterday's game saw the Brewers clinch a win, adding momentum as they seek to extend their lead in the National League Central.

On the mound, the Brewers will start right-hander Bryse Wilson. Wilson has a 3-3 record with a 4.19 ERA over 10 starts and 16 bullpen appearances. However, his 4.82 xFIP suggests he might be due for some regression. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects Wilson to pitch 5.1 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs, with 4.4 strikeouts and 1.6 walks. While these projections indicate a below-average performance, the Brewers' bullpen, ranked 4th by Power Rankings, should provide solid support.

The Reds counter with left-hander Andrew Abbott, who boasts a 5-5 record and an impressive 3.28 ERA over 13 starts. However, his 4.64 xFIP suggests he's been fortunate so far. Abbott is projected to pitch 5.0 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs, with 5.2 strikeouts and 2.0 walks. Despite these average projections, the Reds' bullpen, ranked 19th, may struggle to maintain the lead late in the game.

Offensively, the Brewers hold a significant advantage. Their lineup ranks 5th in MLB and 3rd in team batting average, showcasing their ability to consistently get on base. They also rank 3rd in stolen bases, adding another dimension to their offense. Jackson Chourio has been a standout recently, batting .400 with a 1.100 OPS over the last week.

In contrast, the Reds' offense ranks 20th overall and 27th in team batting average, indicating struggles at the plate. However, they excel in stolen bases, ranking 2nd. Jeimer Candelario has been a bright spot, hitting .333 with a 1.333 OPS and four home runs over the last week.

Betting markets favor the Brewers with a moneyline of -130, implying a 54% win probability. Given their superior offense, recent form, and strong bullpen, the Brewers appear well-positioned to secure another victory against the Reds.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

The Milwaukee Brewers have 8 bats in the projected offense that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Andrew Abbott in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Elly De La Cruz's quickness has fallen off this year. His 30.53 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 30 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

It may be wise to expect better numbers for the Cincinnati Reds offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 6th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-best out of every team today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Extreme groundball hitters like Christian Yelich generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Andrew Abbott.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Milwaukee Brewers bullpen projects as the 4th-best in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 19 games at home (+7.25 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 13 of their last 17 away games (+8.65 Units / 35% ROI)
• Willy Adames has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 13 games at home (+7.10 Units / 55% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.52 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.82

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.