Cincinnati Reds vs Kansas City Royals Pick – 5/28/2025

The Kansas City Royals will host the Cincinnati Reds on May 28, 2025, in what promises to be a competitive matchup. Both teams are closely matched in the standings, with the Royals sitting at 29-27 and the Reds at 28-28. The Royals are having an above-average season, while the Reds' performance has been average thus far. Last night, the Reds triumphed over the Royals, adding to the intrigue as they look to continue their momentum in this interleague series.

On the mound, the Royals will send Noah Cameron to the hill, who has a record of 1-1 and an impressive ERA of 0.93 this season, though his 4.20 xFIP indicates he may face some regression. Cameron's ability to limit runs will be pivotal as he projects to allow 2.4 earned runs and 5.2 hits today. Meanwhile, Hunter Greene will take the ball for Cincinnati. With a strong 4-2 record and a solid 2.54 ERA, Greene ranks as the 20th best starting pitcher in MLB. His ability to strike out hitters (32.6 K%) could be crucial against a Royals offense that ranks as the 3rd least strikeout-prone in the league.

Despite the Royals ranking just 26th in overall offense, their recent performances suggest they could surprise. The projections indicate they may struggle against Greene, especially given his flyball tendencies and the Royals' lack of power. However, with the low Game Total of 7.5 runs, this game could very well hinge on Cameron's performance and the Royals' ability to capitalize on any mistakes made by Greene. With betting markets suggesting a close matchup, this game is shaping up to be a must-watch for fans and bettors alike.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Hunter Greene's 98.7-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a notable 1.1-mph spike from last year's 97.6-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Batters such as Elly De La Cruz with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Noah Cameron who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Cincinnati's 88.6-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the worst in baseball: #28 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Noah Cameron is an extreme flyball pitcher (32.6% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #30 HR venue among all major league stadiums in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Michael Massey's launch angle this year (22.9°) is a significant increase over his 16.7° figure last year.

• A high launch angle generally means the hitter can lift the ball into the air well, which is a key component for power and home runs.

Vinnie Pasquantino pulls many of his flyballs (37.3% — 95th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's deepest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 41 of their last 56 games (+25.65 Units / 40% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.40 Units / 30% ROI)
• Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+10.75 Units / 26% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.37, Kansas City Royals 4.11

• Date: May 28, 2025
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hunter Greene - Reds
  • Noah Cameron - Royals

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