Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies Betting Pick & Preview – 6/3/2024

Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds

Jun 3, 2024

Colorado Rockies

Colorado Rockies
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: June 3, 2024
  • Venue: Coors Field
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Andrew Abbott - Reds
    • Ryan Feltner - Rockies

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Reds -125, Rockies 105
Runline: Reds -1.5 125, Rockies 1.5 -145
Over/Under Total: 10.5 -110

Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Cincinnati Reds - 53% Cincinnati Reds - 49.07%
Colorado Rockies - 47% Colorado Rockies - 50.93%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

The Colorado Rockies will host the Cincinnati Reds in a National League matchup at Coors Field on June 3, 2024. The Rockies, with a record of 21-37 this season, are having a terrible season so far. On the other side, the Reds hold a record of 26-33 and are also struggling with a bad season. This game marks the first meeting of the series between these two teams.

The Rockies are projected to start right-handed pitcher Ryan Feltner, who has had a challenging season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Feltner is ranked as the #195 best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. This places him among the worst in the league. Feltner has started 11 games this year with a Win/Loss record of 1-4 and an ERA of 5.46, which is considered bad. However, his 4.19 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward.

On the mound for the Reds will be left-handed pitcher Andrew Abbott. Abbott, though below average according to our Power Rankings, has had a better season compared to Feltner. He has started 11 games with a Win/Loss record of 3-5 and an impressive ERA of 3.29. However, his 4.59 xFIP indicates that he has been lucky and may face challenges in his performance moving forward.

When it comes to offense, the Rockies rank as the 16th best team in MLB, while the Reds rank 26th. The Rockies have struggled in team batting average and stolen bases, ranking 18th and 30th, respectively. The Reds, on the other hand, have excelled in stolen bases, ranking 1st in the league.

Looking at the odds, the Rockies are the home team and have a moneyline set at +110, implying a win probability of 46%. The Reds, as the away team, have a moneyline of -130, indicating a win probability of 54%. Betting markets anticipate a close game between the two teams.

Based on the projections, the Rockies have a high implied team total of 5.00 runs, while the Reds have an implied team total of 5.50 runs. The Game Total for this matchup is currently set at 10.5 runs, which is considered very high.

Considering the strengths and weaknesses, Feltner's low-strikeout approach may work to his advantage against the high-strikeout Reds offense. Similarly, Abbott's low-strikeout style may pose challenges for the Rockies, who rank third in the league in strikeouts.

Overall, this game presents an intriguing matchup between struggling teams. The Rockies will look to improve their season record, while the Reds aim to get back on track. With the odds favoring a close game, it will be interesting to see how these teams perform on the field.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

The Colorado Rockies have 8 hitters in the projected batting order that will hold the platoon advantage against Andrew Abbott in this game.

  • Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Jonathan India has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (59% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in this matchup.

  • The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The 7.1% Barrel% of the Cincinnati Reds grades them out as the #27 offense in the league since the start of last season by this metric.

  • Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Out of all the teams today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the Colorado Rockies.

  • Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Elias Diaz's footspeed has declined this season. His 25.03 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 24.54 ft/sec now.

  • Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that the Colorado Rockies will tally 6.01 runs on average in this game: the 2nd-most of all teams today.

  • THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Game Trends

  • The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 28 games (+11.55 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 28 games (+6.55 Units / 20% ROI)
  • TJ Friedl has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+7.00 Units / 175% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 6.21 vs Colorado Rockies 6.01

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

-114
56% CIN
-105
44% COL

Total Pick Consensus

11.0/-118
27% UN
11.0/-102
73% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

-1.5/+130
78% CIN
+1.5/-155
22% COL

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
CIN
Team Stats
COL
4.79
ERA
5.51
.256
Batting Avg Against
.277
1.41
WHIP
1.51
.302
BABIP
.311
9.5%
BB%
9.3%
21.8%
K%
18.0%
72.5%
LOB%
67.7%
.250
Batting Avg
.248
.415
SLG
.399
.743
OPS
.707
.327
OBP
.307
CIN
Team Records
COL
25-28
Home
24-29
24-25
Road
14-36
36-34
vRHP
26-47
13-19
vLHP
12-18
26-38
vs>.500
27-39
23-15
vs<.500
11-26
5-5
Last10
5-5
11-9
Last20
10-10
15-15
Last30
13-17
A. Abbott
R. Feltner
76.1
Innings
35.1
13
GS
8
7-3
W-L
2-3
2.95
ERA
5.86
9.79
K/9
8.41
3.18
BB/9
6.37
1.18
HR/9
0.51
84.5%
LOB%
64.8%
9.5%
HR/FB%
5.7%
3.86
FIP
4.34
4.41
xFIP
5.23
.207
AVG
.266
27.0%
K%
20.0%
8.8%
BB%
15.2%
4.18
SIERA
5.56

A. Abbott

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

R. Feltner

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
4/27 PHI
Suarez N/A
L3-7 N/A
5
7
4
4
7
2
54-84
9/12 PHI
Nola N/A
W5-4 N/A
3.2
4
2
2
6
3
44-81
9/5 ATL
Morton N/A
L2-9 N/A
2.2
5
6
6
0
2
35-61

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
CIN COL
CIN COL
Consensus
-135
+114
-114
-105
-135
+114
-115
-105
-134
+114
-116
-102
-134
+114
-113
-104
-135
+115
-110
-110
-140
+115
-115
-105
Open
Current
Book
CIN COL
CIN COL
Consensus
-1.5 (+127)
+1.5 (-152)
-1.5 (+134)
+1.5 (-161)
-1.5 (+120)
+1.5 (-142)
-1.5 (+130)
+1.5 (-155)
-1.5 (+115)
+1.5 (-138)
-1.5 (+128)
+1.5 (-154)
-1.5 (+115)
+1.5 (-143)
-1.5 (+135)
+1.5 (-165)
-1.5 (+118)
+1.5 (-140)
-1.5 (+135)
+1.5 (-160)
-1.5 (+110)
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (+135)
+1.5 (-160)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
10.5 (-120)
10.5 (+100)
11.0 (-103)
11.0 (-118)
10.5 (-120)
10.5 (+100)
11.0 (-102)
11.0 (-118)
10.5 (+100)
10.5 (-122)
10.5 (-120)
10.5 (-102)
10.5 (-112)
10.5 (-108)
11.0 (-104)
11.0 (-118)
10.5 (-110)
10.5 (-110)
11.0 (-105)
11.0 (-115)
10.5 (-110)
10.5 (-110)
10.5 (-120)
10.5 (+100)