Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves Game 1 Pick & Preview – 7/24/2024

Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves Game 1 Details

• Date: July 24, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Frankie Montas - Reds
  • Allan Winans - Braves

Reds vs Braves Game 1 Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves Game 1 Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves Game 1 Betting Preview

The Atlanta Braves and Cincinnati Reds are set to face off at Truist Park on July 24, 2024, in the first game of a double-header. The Braves, currently with a 54-45 record and an above-average season, are looking to bounce back after losing 4-1 to the Reds on July 22. The Reds, who boast a 48-53 record and are having a below-average season, managed to secure a win despite being underdogs in the previous game.

Atlanta's Allan Winans is slated to take the mound, and he's had a rough start to the season with a 10.80 ERA. However, his 5.73 xFIP suggests he’s been unlucky and might perform better moving forward. Winans will need to capitalize on Cincinnati's high strikeout rate (5th most in MLB) to find success. On the other side, the Reds will counter with Frankie Montas, an average pitcher according to advanced metrics, sporting a 4.85 ERA over 18 starts. Montas is a high-walk pitcher (9.9 BB%), but the Braves' low-walk offense (#6 least walks) may not exploit this weakness effectively.

Offensively, Atlanta has some distinct advantages. Ranked 9th in home runs, they have the firepower to change the game with one swing. Marcell Ozuna, their standout hitter, has been on a tear, posting a .500 batting average and a 1.491 OPS over the last week. Conversely, Cincinnati's offense, ranked 27th in batting average, will need to lean on Elly De La Cruz, who has been their best hitter with a .313 average and a .984 OPS in the past week.

The Braves' bullpen, ranked 6th, should offer a significant edge over the Reds’ 26th-ranked bullpen. This could be crucial in a closely contested game. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Braves are favored with a 56% win probability, slightly higher than their implied probability of 55%. The Reds' chances are pegged at 44%, aligning closely with their implied probability.

With both teams looking to gain momentum heading into the second game of the double-header, this matchup promises to be a compelling contest, especially given the Braves' slight edge in projections and bullpen strength.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

The Cincinnati Reds have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Elly De La Cruz, Stuart Fairchild, Will Benson).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Out of all the teams in action today, the weakest outfield defense is that of the the Atlanta Braves.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves' bullpen grades out as the 7th-best out of all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves Game 1 Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.79 vs Atlanta Braves 4.74

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.