Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals Pick & Prediction – 7/21/2024

Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals Details

• Date: July 21, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andrew Abbott - Reds
  • Jake Irvin - Nationals

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

As the Washington Nationals prepare to host the Cincinnati Reds on July 21, 2024, both teams find themselves in the midst of a below-average season. The Nationals, with a record of 46-53, and the Reds, at 47-52, are both struggling to find consistency. This National League matchup at Nationals Park is the third game in the series, with Washington looking to build on their recent performances.

On the mound, the Nationals will start right-hander Jake Irvin, who has been somewhat of a mixed bag this season. Despite a respectable ERA of 3.49, Irvin's 4.01 SIERA suggests he has been fortunate and may regress. His Win/Loss record stands at 7-8 over 20 starts, indicating inconsistency. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, forecasts Irvin to pitch an average of 5.4 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs, while striking out 5.1 batters—an average performance across the board.

The Reds will counter with left-hander Andrew Abbott, who has a solid ERA of 3.39 but a concerning xFIP of 4.84, hinting at potential regression. Abbott's 9-6 record over 19 starts shows he has been slightly more effective than Irvin. Projections have Abbott pitching 5.6 innings, giving up 2.8 earned runs, and striking out 4.6 batters, which is below average. His tendency to allow flyballs could play to his advantage against a Nationals offense that ranks 29th in home runs this season.

Offensively, Washington ranks 26th overall, struggling in most categories except stolen bases, where they rank 3rd. Their batting average is a middling 19th, and they will need to capitalize on their speed to generate runs. The Reds, meanwhile, have a more balanced but still average offense, ranking 18th overall. They excel in stealing bases, leading MLB in that category, which could put pressure on a Nationals bullpen that ranks 29th in Power Rankings.

The betting markets have the Nationals slightly favored with a moneyline of -120 and an implied win probability of 52%, while the Reds sit at +100 with a 48% implied win probability. With both teams projected to score around 4 runs, expect a closely contested game. Given the Nationals' slight edge in betting odds and Irvin's potential to outperform expectations, Washington might just have the upper hand in this matchup.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Given that groundball pitchers are least effective against flyball hitters, Andrew Abbott (40.7% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this game with 5 FB hitters in Washington's projected batting order.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

In the last 7 days, Spencer Steer's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.5% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Jeimer Candelario pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.7% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Jake Irvin has used his off-speed and breaking balls 11% more often this season (46.4%) than he did last year (35.4%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Keibert Ruiz's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 89.9-mph average last season has fallen off to 86.4-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Washington Nationals projected lineup projects as the worst of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall hitting ability.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 22 of their last 36 games at home (+8.10 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 44 of their last 77 games (+8.10 Units / 8% ROI)
• Will Benson has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.65 Units / 62% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.66 vs Washington Nationals 4.41

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