Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals Pick & Prediction – 9/11/2024

• Date: September 11, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brandon Williamson - Reds
  • Lance Lynn - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

The St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds continue their key National League Central series on September 11, 2024, following a shutout victory for the Reds yesterday, where they blanked the Cardinals 3-0. As both teams seek to improve their overall records, the Cardinals sit at 72-72 while the Reds are at 71-75, highlighting an average season for both squads.

Projected starters for this matchup are Lance Lynn for the Cardinals and Brandon Williamson for the Reds. Lynn, ranked 122nd among MLB starting pitchers, brings a Win/Loss record of 6-4 this year with an ERA of 4.06. However, his 4.90 xERA suggests that he has been somewhat fortunate in his performances. While Lynn's strikeout rate is below average, he is expected to average 5.4 innings, projecting 2.4 earned runs, and his ability to limit damage will be crucial against a Reds' offense that ranks 16th overall.

Williamson, although having only started 2 games this season, boasts an impressive ERA of 2.25. However, his projections are less favorable, indicating he could struggle with 4.3 innings pitched and 2.3 earned runs allowed on average. His recent abbreviated start on September 1 raises questions about his endurance and effectiveness against the Cardinals.

In terms of offense, the Cardinals rank 20th overall despite a respectable 12th in team batting average. Their best hitter, Paul Goldschmidt, has recorded 21 home runs this season, while recent form from Nolan Arenado suggests he could be a pivotal force after hitting .313 over his last week. Conversely, the Reds boast Elly De La Cruz as their best player, who has excelled with 23 home runs and a remarkable .407 batting average over the past week.

With the Cardinals favored at -140 and an implied team total of 4.54 runs, expectations are high for a bounce-back performance after yesterday's setback. Based on the leading MLB projection system, the projections favor the Cardinals at a 55% win probability for today’s contest. Overall, this matchup shapes up to be a competitive battle, as both teams look to capitalize on each other's weaknesses.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

As a result of his reverse platoon split, Brandon Williamson will benefit from being matched up with 7 bats in the projected batting order of opposing handedness in this outing.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luken Baker in the 16th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen projects as the 6th-best in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 74 games (+5.30 Units / 7% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 70 of their last 122 games (+11.05 Units / 8% ROI)
• Nolan Arenado has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 31 of his last 49 games (+9.90 Units / 17% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.38 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.58

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