Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets Pick For 9/6/2024

• Date: September 6, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Fernando Cruz - Reds
  • Sean Manaea - Mets

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets Betting Preview

As the Cincinnati Reds travel to face the New York Mets on September 6, 2024, the stakes are clear. The Mets sit comfortably above .500 with a record of 76-64, while the Reds linger below with a 68-73 mark, reflecting a disappointing season. This contest marks the first game of a series, and the Mets will look to capitalize on their home-field advantage at Citi Field.

The Mets have Francisco Lindor leading the way, showcasing his prowess by collecting 9 hits, 7 runs, and 5 RBIs over the last week. Meanwhile, the Reds have been less fortunate, struggling to find consistency in their bats, exemplified by a team batting average ranking of 27th in MLB.

Starting for the Mets, Sean Manaea brings an impressive 11-5 record and a solid ERA of 3.35, positioning him as an above-average pitcher. However, his 4.13 xFIP suggests he might not sustain this level of performance over time, making today’s matchup intriguing. Manaea has averaged 5.4 innings pitched and projects to allow 2.3 earned runs, which aligns well against a Reds lineup that hasn’t been able to hit consistently.

On the other side, Reds' Fernando Cruz faces a challenging outing, with a 4.99 ERA and a troubling track record of allowing 1.4 walks per game. His expected performance—projecting only 3.5 innings pitched—could put significant pressure on the Reds' bullpen, which is already ranked 22nd in MLB.

Given the projections, the Mets are favored to win, with their offense ranked 10th in MLB and bolstered by their recent play. The Game Total is set low at 7.5 runs, indicating a likely struggle for the Reds to keep pace offensively, reinforcing the edge the Mets have going into this matchup.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Fernando Cruz to be on a bit of a short leash in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 73 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Spencer Steer has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 6.3% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the last 14 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Spencer Steer pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.9% — 86th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Sean Manaea's sinker percentage has jumped by 36.7% from last year to this one (0.7% to 37.4%) .

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Pete Alonso has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.7-mph to 94.7-mph over the past week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The New York Mets have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Francisco Alvarez, Mark Vientos, J.D. Martinez).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 50 of their last 91 games (+14.75 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 67 of their last 118 games (+10.20 Units / 6% ROI)
• Mark Vientos has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 25 games at home (+17.35 Units / 69% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.09 vs New York Mets 4.58

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.