Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers Pick & Prediction – 8/9/2024

Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Details

• Date: August 9, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Carson Spiers - Reds
  • Aaron Civale - Brewers

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to host the Cincinnati Reds on August 9, 2024, both teams are looking to make a statement in this National League Central matchup. The Brewers currently sit at 65-49, enjoying a strong season, while the Reds hold a 56-59 record, struggling to find consistency.

The Brewers will send Aaron Civale to the mound, who has had a rocky season with a 2-8 record and an ERA of 5.14. However, Civale's peripheral numbers suggest he has been a victim of bad luck this year, as his 4.23 xFIP indicates he could be poised for an upswing. He projects to pitch around 5.2 innings, allowing an average of 2.4 earned runs while striking out 5.4 batters. Meanwhile, Carson Spiers of the Reds has shown promise with a respectable ERA of 3.59, but his projections suggest he may have benefited from some luck, as indicated by his higher xFIP of 4.17.

Offensively, the Brewers rank 8th in MLB and 5th in team batting average, highlighting their strength at the plate. In contrast, the Reds find themselves in the middle of the pack overall, but their low batting average of 27th in the league raises eyebrows. Milwaukee's potent offense, combined with their 10th-ranked bullpen, is expected to pose a significant challenge for Spiers and a struggling Reds lineup.

With a game total set at 8.5 runs, bettors might find intrigue in the Brewers' high implied team total of 4.50 runs, suggesting confidence in their ability to capitalize on the Reds' weaknesses.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Carson Spiers has a mean projection of 14.8 outs in today's matchup, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Jeimer Candelario is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 72% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

In today's matchup, Jeimer Candelario is at a disadvantage facing the league's 7th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 37.6% rate (95th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Aaron Civale has used his cutter 5.7% less often this year (31.7%) than he did last year (37.4%).

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Sal Frelick has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 83.7-mph dropping to 79.3-mph over the last two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected batting order for the Milwaukee Brewers in today's game holds an estimated true talent wOBA of .312, which is considerably lower than their actual wOBA of .325 this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 58 of their last 105 games (+13.45 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 29 away games (+7.70 Units / 24% ROI)
• Spencer Steer has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 24 games (+9.95 Units / 29% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.4 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.98

Get daily MLB picks here.