Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs Pick & Prediction – 9/29/2024

• Date: September 29, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hunter Greene - Reds
  • Caleb Kilian - Cubs

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

As the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds prepare to face off at Wrigley Field on September 29, 2024, the Cubs are looking to wrap up their season on a high note. With an 83-78 record, the Cubs have had an above-average season, while the Reds, at 76-85, have struggled. This National League Central matchup sees the Cubs entering the game with the momentum of a 3-0 shutout victory over the Reds just a day prior.

On the mound, the Cubs will start Caleb Kilian, who has only one start under his belt this season, and it wasn't pretty. Kilian's 7.94 ERA and lackluster performance in his last outing—where he allowed seven earned runs in just three innings—underscore his struggles. Despite these challenges, projections suggest Kilian may have been a bit unlucky, as his xFIP hints at potential improvement. He is expected to pitch around 5.1 innings, allowing 2.1 earned runs on average, which could keep the Cubs in the game.

The Reds counter with Hunter Greene, a significantly more reliable option. Greene boasts an impressive 2.83 ERA across 25 starts this season, although his xFIP indicates he's benefited from some good fortune. Greene, ranked as the 54th best starting pitcher, is projected to pitch 5.7 innings and strike out seven batters, showcasing his ability to dominate on the mound despite being prone to allowing hits and walks.

Offensively, the Cubs have been slightly above average, ranking 13th in overall offense, while the Reds sit at 20th. However, the Cubs have an edge in team batting average, ranking 15th compared to the Reds' 26th. The Cubs also boast a stronger bullpen, ranked 18th, compared to the Reds' 25th.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Cubs a 53% win probability, suggesting potential value in betting on Chicago, as it exceeds the market's implied probability of 47%. With the game total set at a low 7.0 runs, expect a tight, pitching-centric contest as the Cubs aim to finish their season series against the Reds with another victory.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Hunter Greene’s fastball velocity over his last 3 games started (95.9 mph) has been considerably lower than than his seasonal rate (97 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Spencer Steer is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the strong outfield defense of Chicago (#2-best on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Cincinnati Reds bullpen grades out as the 6th-worst in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Compared to the average pitcher, Caleb Kilian has been granted a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an -10.0 fewer adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Dansby Swanson has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (71% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Isaac Paredes pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (46.3% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 47 of their last 76 games at home (+14.65 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 84 of their last 145 games (+15.00 Units / 9% ROI)
• Michael Busch has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+8.00 Units / 51% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 3.77 vs Chicago Cubs 3.84

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