Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs Best Bet – 6/2/2024

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: June 2, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Lodolo - Reds
  • Ben Brown - Cubs

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

On June 2, 2024, the Chicago Cubs will host the Cincinnati Reds at Wrigley Field in an exciting National League Central matchup. The Cubs, with a record of 29-30 this season, are having an average season, while the Reds, with a record of 25-33, are struggling.

The Cubs are projected to start right-handed pitcher Ben Brown, who has been performing well this year. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Brown is the 55th best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers, indicating his skill on the mound. He has a 1-1 win/loss record with an impressive ERA of 2.72. However, his 3.31 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky this season and could face challenges going forward.

Opposing Brown will be left-handed pitcher Nick Lodolo of the Reds. Lodolo is ranked 31st among starting pitchers in MLB, showcasing his talent. He has a 4-2 win/loss record and a solid ERA of 3.12. Lodolo's control on the mound, with a low 5.6 BB%, could pose a challenge for the Cubs' patient offense, which ranks third in walks in MLB.

In their last meeting, the Cubs emerged victorious with a 7-5 win over the Reds. The Cubs were the favorites in that game, with a closing Moneyline price of -140 and an implied win probability of 56%. The Reds, as underdogs, had a closing Moneyline price of +120 and an implied win probability of 44%.

The Cubs' offense ranks 21st in MLB this season, while the Reds' offense ranks 25th. However, the Cubs excel in team batting average, ranking 9th, and stolen bases, ranking 6th. On the other hand, the Reds lead the league in stolen bases, showcasing their speed on the basepaths.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Cubs have a projected win probability of 55%, while the Reds have a projected win probability of 45%. The current moneyline odds reflect a close game, with the Cubs at -120 and the Reds at +100.

With Ben Brown's high-strikeout ability against the Reds' strikeout-prone offense and Nick Lodolo's control against the Cubs' patient approach, both pitchers have strengths that could give them an advantage in this matchup.

Based on the projections, the Cubs are expected to score 3.81 runs on average, while the Reds are projected to score 3.65 runs. The Game Total is set at 7.5 runs, indicating a low-scoring game.

As the Cubs and Reds take the field, it promises to be an intriguing matchup between two division rivals. With both teams looking to secure a victory, fans can expect an exciting and closely contested game at Wrigley Field.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Nick Lodolo has used his fastball a lot this year, though: 54.3% of the time, checking in at the 100th percentile.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.282) suggests that T.J. Friedl has had some very good luck since the start of last season with his .346 actual wOBA.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Jeimer Candelario pulls many of his flyballs (37.8% — 95th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball's 5th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Among all SPs, Ben Brown's fastball velocity of 95.8 mph ranks in the 92nd percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Ian Happ has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (83% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Yan Gomes (the Cubs's expected catcher in today's game) profiles as a horrible pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games (+8.60 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 25 away games (+6.30 Units / 21% ROI)
• Cody Bellinger has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 29 games (+8.25 Units / 28% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 3.71 vs Chicago Cubs 4

Get daily MLB picks here.