Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 7, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mike Soroka - White Sox
  • Zach Eflin - Rays

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

In a matchup set to take place on May 7, 2024, the Tampa Bay Rays will play host to the Chicago White Sox at Tropicana Field. This American League showdown features two teams with contrasting records this season. The Rays, with a season record of 18-18, are having an average season, while the struggling White Sox hold a record of 8-27, making it a terrible season for them so far.

Taking the mound for the Rays is right-handed pitcher Zach Eflin, who has been performing impressively this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Eflin is ranked as the #29 best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers, indicating his greatness on the mound. In contrast, the White Sox will rely on right-handed pitcher Mike Soroka, who has struggled this season and is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB based on our Power Rankings.

Eflin has started seven games this year, with a win/loss record of 1-4. While his ERA stands at 4.17, which is above average, his 3.38 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky this season and is likely to perform better going forward. Soroka, on the other hand, has started seven games with a win/loss record of 0-3 and an ERA of 6.48, which is considered horrible. However, his 5.66 xFIP indicates that he has also been unlucky, and there is a chance for improvement in his performance.

In terms of offensive rankings, the Rays have a better position than the White Sox. The Rays rank as the #21 best offense in MLB this season, with a good batting average and an impressive number of home runs and stolen bases. On the other hand, the White Sox rank as the #30 offense, indicating their struggles in various offensive categories.

Considering the projected performance of the pitchers and the offensive rankings, the Rays are favored to win this game. The Rays have a higher implied win probability of 68%, compared to the White Sox's 32%. The Rays also have a higher projected team total of 4.83 runs, while the White Sox have a lower team total of 3.17 runs.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Mike Soroka has been given less leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 10.2 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Nicky Lopez has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (56% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Tommy Pham hits many of his flyballs to center field (40% — 98th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's 9th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Zach Eflin's curveball percentage has decreased by 6.2% from last season to this one (26.5% to 20.3%) .

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Yandy Diaz's quickness has decreased this year. His 26.61 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.65 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

It may be smart to expect worse numbers for the Tampa Bay Rays offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 10th-luckiest offense in MLB this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 49 games (+12.85 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 108 games (+9.40 Units / 8% ROI)
• Eloy Jimenez has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 14 games (+14.50 Units / 104% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 3.22 vs Tampa Bay Rays 4.55

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