Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees Prediction & Picks 5/19/2024

Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 19, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Flexen - White Sox
  • Carlos Rodon - Yankees

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

On May 19, 2024, the New York Yankees will face off against the Chicago White Sox at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees, with a record of 32-15, are having a great season, while the White Sox, with a record of 14-32, are struggling. This American League matchup is the third game in the series between these two teams.

The Yankees, being the home team, have the advantage of playing at Yankee Stadium. They are projected to start left-handed pitcher Carlos Rodon, who has been performing above average this season. In his nine starts, Rodon has a win-loss record of 4-2 and an ERA of 3.31. However, his 4.22 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could regress in future performances.

On the other hand, the White Sox are projected to start right-handed pitcher Chris Flexen, who has been one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Flexen has started seven games this year, with a win-loss record of 2-3 and an ERA of 4.46.

The Yankees have a strong offense, ranking as the third-best in MLB this season. However, their team batting average ranks 29th, indicating that their underlying talent may be better than their actual performance. They excel in home runs, ranking eighth in the league, but struggle in stolen bases, ranking 20th.

In contrast, the White Sox have the worst offense in MLB, ranking 30th. Their team batting average ranks 22nd, and they also struggle in home runs and stolen bases, ranking 21st and 22nd, respectively.

The Yankees bullpen is considered average, ranking 15th in the league, while the White Sox bullpen ranks 27th, indicating a significant disadvantage for the White Sox in late-game situations.

Based on the current odds, the Yankees are the heavy favorites with an implied win probability of 72%, while the White Sox are significant underdogs with an implied win probability of 28%. The Yankees have a high implied team total of 5.03 runs, while the White Sox have a low implied team total of 2.97 runs.

The Yankees' best hitter over the last seven games has been Aaron Judge, recording 11 hits, 7 runs, 5 RBIs, and 3 home runs with a batting average of .550 and an OPS of 1.929. For the White Sox, Tommy Pham has been their best hitter over the last seven games, with 10 hits, 1 stolen base, a batting average of .435, and an OPS of 1.045.

In terms of the pitching matchup, Rodon's low-walk approach may not be as effective against the White Sox, who have the second-fewest walks in MLB. This could give the White Sox an advantage if they can capitalize on Rodon's tendency to throw strikes.

Overall, the Yankees have the upper hand in this game, with a strong offense, a better starting pitcher, and a more reliable bullpen. However, baseball is an unpredictable sport, and anything can happen on any given day. The White Sox will look to defy the odds and pull off an upset against the favored Yankees.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Chris Flexen has utilized his secondary pitches 6.4% more often this year (60.9%) than he did last season (54.5%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Paul DeJong is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the weak outfield defense of New York (#2-worst of all teams on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

In today's matchup, Tommy Pham is at a disadvantage facing the league's 5th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.8% rate (97th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Among all the teams today, the 2nd-weakest outfield defense belongs to the New York Yankees.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Anthony Rizzo is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 70% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The 2nd-best projected offense on the slate in terms of overall batting ability is that of the New York Yankees.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 12 of their last 17 games (+9.65 Units / 48% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.90 Units / 54% ROI)
• Gleyber Torres has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 17 games at home (+8.10 Units / 33% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 3.29 vs New York Yankees 5.48

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