Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals Pick For 7/20/2024

Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals Details

• Date: July 20, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jonathan Cannon - White Sox
  • Brady Singer - Royals

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

Kansas City is looking to continue its solid season as they host the struggling Chicago White Sox on July 20, 2024, at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals, with a 53-45 record, are having an above-average season, while the White Sox, at 27-72, have had a dismal year. This American League Central matchup will feature Brady Singer for the Royals and Jonathan Cannon for the White Sox, both right-handed pitchers.

Kansas City comes into this game with the 15th-best offense in MLB, ranking 11th in batting average and 17th in home runs. They also rank 7th in stolen bases, showcasing a balanced offensive attack. Meanwhile, the White Sox offense has been abysmal, ranking last in MLB and near the bottom in batting average and home runs.

Singer, who has started 19 games this year, holds a 5-6 record with an impressive 3.20 ERA. However, peripherals such as his 4.01 FIP suggest he has been a bit lucky and might regress. Singer's high-groundball rate (51% GB) could neutralize Chicago's lack of power, as the White Sox rank 28th in home runs. On the flip side, Cannon has struggled, posting a 4.41 ERA and a 1-3 record in eight starts. His 3.87 xERA indicates he's been somewhat unlucky and might improve, but his low strikeout rate (18%) could be problematic against a Royals lineup that ranks 2nd in fewest strikeouts.

The Kansas City bullpen, ranked 15th, is average, while Chicago's bullpen is the worst in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. This disparity gives the Royals a significant edge in late-game situations.

The betting odds favor Kansas City heavily, with a moneyline of -205 and an implied win probability of 65%. The White Sox are underdogs at +175, with a 35% implied win probability. The Game Total is set at 9.0 runs, indicating expectations for a high-scoring affair. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects a strong performance from Singer, who is expected to pitch 6.3 innings and allow just 2.4 earned runs on average.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Jonathan Cannon is projected to throw 85 pitches in this game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 5th-least on the slate today.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

There has been a decrease in Nick Senzel's average exit velocity this season, from 87.4 mph last year to 84.6 mph now

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Chicago White Sox bullpen profiles as the worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Brady Singer's sinker percentage has dropped by 12.6% from last year to this one (51.1% to 38.5%) .

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker less often will likely be more effective than he used to be.

In terms of his home runs, Bobby Witt Jr. has experienced some negative variance this year. His 22.6 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been significantly deflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 31.6.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Hunter Renfroe pulls many of his flyballs (40% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 4th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 23 games (+9.30 Units / 36% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 24 away games (+7.50 Units / 30% ROI)
• Tommy Pham has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+10.25 Units / 32% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 3.85 vs Kansas City Royals 5.29

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