Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals Best Bet – 7/21/2024

Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals Details

• Date: July 21, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Drew Thorpe - White Sox
  • Seth Lugo - Royals

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

The Kansas City Royals host the Chicago White Sox at Kauffman Stadium on July 21, 2024, for the third game in their series. The Royals are having a solid season with a 54-45 record, while the White Sox are struggling at 27-73.

Seth Lugo takes the mound for Kansas City, boasting a strong 2.48 ERA and an 11-4 win/loss record over 20 starts. Despite his excellent ERA, Lugo's xFIP of 3.71 suggests some regression might be due. On the other side, Drew Thorpe gets the nod for Chicago. Thorpe, in his 6 starts this season, has a respectable 3.58 ERA but an alarming 5.38 xFIP, indicating he’s been quite fortunate.

Kansas City’s offense is middling, ranking 16th in the league overall but showing strength in stolen bases (7th). Bobby Witt Jr. leads the charge with a .332 batting average, 17 home runs, and 22 stolen bases. The White Sox, however, rank last in MLB offense and are also 29th in batting average and 28th in home runs, making them a weak offensive unit.

The Royals’ bullpen is ranked 18th, while the White Sox bullpen is the worst in MLB at 30th. This disparity could play a crucial role, especially if the game is close in the late innings.

In their last outing on July 20, the Royals defeated the White Sox 6-1, with Kansas City being heavily favored with a Moneyline of -240. Kansas City’s betting odds for today’s game stand at -220, reflecting a 67% implied win probability. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives Kansas City a 62% chance of winning, suggesting some alignment with betting markets, although the White Sox might offer value as per the projections.

With the Royals having an above-average season and the White Sox mired in a slump, Kansas City seems poised to extend their series lead. However, given the nuances in the pitching matchups and the potential value on the underdog, this game remains intriguing from a betting perspective.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

The Chicago White Sox infield defense projects as the 3rd-weakest among all the teams on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Andrew Benintendi's true offensive ability to be a .314, indicating that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .064 difference between that mark and his actual .250 wOBA.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox' bullpen projects as the worst among all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Seth Lugo has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 4.6 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average starting pitcher.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Maikel Garcia has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (92% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Hunter Renfroe pulls a lot of his flyballs (40% — 98th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's 4th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 33 games (+10.80 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 27 games (+6.85 Units / 23% ROI)
• Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 18 games (+10.15 Units / 40% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 4.06 vs Kansas City Royals 4.91

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