Chicago White Sox at Baltimore Orioles Prediction For 9/3/2024

• Date: September 3, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Nastrini - White Sox
  • Cade Povich - Orioles

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

As the Chicago White Sox visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards on September 3, 2024, they face the Baltimore Orioles in the second game of a series. The Orioles are riding high this season with an impressive 80-59 record, ranking 1st in MLB with 157 home runs. In contrast, the White Sox have stumbled to a dismal 31-108, ranking last in the league for offense and home runs, making them a significant underdog in this matchup.

In their previous game, the Orioles secured a comfortable victory, showcasing their potent offense, while the White Sox continue to struggle. Baltimore plans to start Cade Povich, who, despite having a rough Win/Loss record of 1-7 and an ERA of 6.58, is projected to pitch a serviceable 5.2 innings today. Povich's peripheral stats suggest he has faced some bad luck this year, creating potential for improvement. Moreover, he faces a White Sox lineup that has struggled against left-handed pitching.

On the other side, the White Sox will counter with Nick Nastrini, who has had his own difficulties this season, posting a 0-6 record and a troubling ERA of 7.04. Nastrini's projections aren't favorable either as he is expected to pitch just 4.3 innings today, allowing an average of 2.9 earned runs, which points to a potentially rough outing.

While the Orioles' offense ranks 4th in MLB, the White Sox's inability to consistently put runs on the board highlights a stark contrast in capabilities. Betting odds favor Baltimore significantly, reflecting not only the season's performance but also the matchup dynamics between the two pitchers. With the Game Total set at a high 9.0 runs, hitters from the Orioles could capitalize on Nastrini's struggles, making them a compelling pick for today's matchup.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

With 7 bats who hit from the other side in the opposing team's projected batting order, Nick Nastrini has a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Corey Julks has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.6-mph dropping to 80.2-mph over the last two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

It may be wise to expect better results for the Chicago White Sox offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the unluckiest offense in the majors this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Cade Povich gave up a colossal 5 earned runs in his last start.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

Typically, bats like Anthony Santander who hit a lot of flyballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Nick Nastrini.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Baltimore Orioles' bullpen projects as the 5th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 75 of their last 138 games (+19.70 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 29 away games (+7.40 Units / 21% ROI)
• Luis Robert has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 41 games (+12.50 Units / 20% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 4.08 vs Baltimore Orioles 5.61

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