Chicago White Sox at Baltimore Orioles Prediction For 9/2/2024

• Date: September 2, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Flexen - White Sox
  • Corbin Burnes - Orioles

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to host the Chicago White Sox on September 2, 2024, the stakes are high for the home team, who currently holds a strong record of 79-59, while the White Sox are struggling at 31-107. The Orioles, with their potent offense ranking 1st in home runs, look to capitalize on a White Sox pitching staff that has been among the worst in the league.

In their last game, the Orioles displayed their power, beating the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. Meanwhile, the White Sox are coming off a disappointing stretch, having lost their last game, which adds to their woes this season.

The matchup features Orioles' right-hander Corbin Burnes, who boasts a solid 3.23 ERA and a 12-7 record, taking the mound against Chris Flexen, who has struggled with a 5.29 ERA and a 2-13 record. Burnes, ranked 26th among starting pitchers in the league, is anticipated to pitch around 5.9 innings while allowing approximately 2.1 earned runs. His ability to keep the ball on the ground (49% ground ball rate) could pose challenges for a White Sox offense that has ranked 30th in overall effectiveness this season.

Flexen, conversely, has a tendency towards high flyballs (37% fly ball rate), which sets up favorably for the Orioles and their explosive lineup. With an implied team total of 5.52 runs, the projections favor the Orioles significantly in this matchup, reflecting their commanding position as heavy favorites.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Out of all starting pitchers, Chris Flexen's fastball velocity of 90.7 mph grades out in the 11th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Nicky Lopez is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 55% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Chicago White Sox have been the unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in the future

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Compared to the average starter, Corbin Burnes has been granted an above-average leash this year, throwing an extra 3.8 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Adley Rutschman has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.4-mph dropping to 80.7-mph in the past week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Baltimore Orioles' bullpen profiles as the 5th-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 71 of their last 131 games (+17.90 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 21 away games (+5.50 Units / 24% ROI)
• Luis Robert has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 41 games (+12.50 Units / 20% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 3.51 vs Baltimore Orioles 5.41

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