Chicago Cubs vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 6/13/2024

Chicago Cubs vs Tampa Bay Rays Details

• Date: June 13, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Justin Steele - Cubs
  • Taj Bradley - Rays

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays and Chicago Cubs are set to square off in the third game of their interleague series at Tropicana Field on June 13, 2024. The Rays, with a record of 32-36, have struggled this season, while the Cubs, sitting at 33-35, have been relatively average. Both teams are looking to gain some momentum as they approach the midpoint of the season. Yesterday, the Cubs edged out the Rays in a close 4-3 contest.

Taj Bradley will take the mound for the Rays. Bradley, a right-handed pitcher, has had a rough start to the season with a 1-4 record and a 5.17 ERA. However, his 3.45 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and could see better results moving forward. Bradley's last outing on June 8 was promising, as he pitched 5 innings, allowing just 1 earned run and striking out 7. The Rays will hope he can carry that form into today's game.

On the other side, the Cubs will counter with left-hander Justin Steele. Steele has been solid this season with a 3.65 ERA, despite a winless 0-3 record. In his last start on June 7, Steele was impressive, going 7 innings with 1 earned run and 7 strikeouts. According to advanced-stat Power Rankings, Steele is the 30th best starting pitcher in MLB, compared to Bradley's 82nd rank.

Offensively, both teams have their struggles. The Rays rank 24th in batting average and 28th in home runs, though they do excel in stolen bases, ranking 5th. The Cubs, meanwhile, rank 20th in overall offense, 24th in batting average, and 17th in home runs. Christopher Morel has been a standout for the Cubs, leading the team with 13 home runs and 40 RBIs. For the Rays, Isaac Paredes has been their best hitter, boasting a .291 average and 10 home runs.

The Rays' bullpen ranks 14th in MLB, slightly better than the Cubs' 20th-ranked bullpen. This could be a key factor in what is projected to be a tight game. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects both teams' win probabilities at 50%, indicating a closely contested matchup.

Currently, the betting markets have the Cubs favored at -120 with an implied win probability of 52%, while the Rays are at +100 with a 48% implied win probability. Given Bradley's potential for improvement and Steele's consistency, this game promises to be a nail-biter.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Justin Steele's 2424-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 80th percentile out of all starting pitchers.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Miguel Amaya's quickness has decreased this season. His 26.18 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 24.8 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Seiya Suzuki hits many of his flyballs to center field (41.1% — 100th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 9th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Taj Bradley is projected to strikeout 5.7 hitters in today's game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.292) suggests that Yandy Diaz has been unlucky this year with his .246 actual batting average.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Positioned 5th-least steep in the league since the start of last season, Tampa Bay Rays batters as a group have notched a 11.5° launch angle on their hardest-hit balls (a reliable standard to assess power skills).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games (+9.70 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 32 games (+11.05 Units / 29% ROI)
• Alex Jackson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.75 Units / 61% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.17 vs Tampa Bay Rays 3.97

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