Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction, Odds & Picks – 5/26/2024

Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 26, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Javier Assad - Cubs
  • Sonny Gray - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

On May 26, 2024, the St. Louis Cardinals will face off against the Chicago Cubs in a National League Central matchup at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals, with a record of 24-26, are having a below-average season, while the Cubs, with a record of 27-25, are having an above-average season.

The Cardinals, being the home team, will have the advantage of familiar surroundings as they take on their division rivals. They are projected to start the talented right-handed pitcher, Sonny Gray. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Gray is ranked as the #10 best starting pitcher in MLB, making him an elite pitcher. He has started 8 games this season, boasting a 6-2 record and an excellent ERA of 2.87.

On the other side, the Cubs will send Javier Assad to the mound. Assad, also a right-handed pitcher, has started 10 games this year, maintaining an undefeated 4-0 record and an impressive ERA of 1.70. However, our projections indicate that Assad's performance might regress, as his xFIP suggests that he has been lucky this year.

In terms of offense, the Cardinals rank as the #22 best team in MLB this season. However, they have shown strength in team batting average, ranking #7 in the league. They also excel in hitting home runs, ranking #5. On the other hand, their stolen bases ranking is rather low at #23. The Cubs, meanwhile, rank as the #20 best team in MLB, with a strong team batting average ranking of #9 and a solid stolen bases ranking of #6.

When it comes to the bullpens, both teams have been performing well. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, the Cardinals have the #7 best bullpen in MLB, while the Cubs have the #9 best bullpen.

Considering the projected performance of the starting pitchers, the Cardinals have an average implied team total of 3.97 runs, while the Cubs have a lower implied team total of 3.53 runs.

In terms of recent performance, the Cardinals' best hitter over the last 7 games has been Masyn Winn, who has recorded 7 hits, 4 RBIs, and 1 home run, with an impressive batting average of .467 and an OPS of 1.400. The Cubs' best hitter over the last 7 games has been Dansby Swanson, who has recorded 5 hits, with a batting average of .385 and an OPS of .890.

Overall, this is an important divisional matchup with playoff implications. With the Cardinals being the home team and having an elite pitcher in Sonny Gray, they have a slight advantage. However, the Cubs' offense and the performances of Javier Assad cannot be overlooked. It is expected to be a close and competitive game, with the betting markets reflecting a relatively even matchup.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Javier Assad has gone to his off-speed and breaking balls 5.1% less often this year (45%) than he did last season (50.1%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Miguel Amaya's footspeed has dropped off this year. His 26.18 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.47 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Chicago Cubs have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Michael Busch, Christopher Morel, Patrick Wisdom).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Sonny Gray’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 GS (2637 rpm) has been significantly better than than his seasonal rate (2563 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Paul Goldschmidt has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs this year; his 11.5 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is significantly deflated relative to his 29.3 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen projects as the 7th-best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 44 games (+5.85 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 29 games (+5.90 Units / 18% ROI)
• Michael Busch has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 18 away games (+16.20 Units / 90% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 3.86 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.54

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