Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres Prediction – 4/14/2025

Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

On April 14, 2025, the San Diego Padres host the Chicago Cubs in the first game of their series at Petco Park. Both teams are enjoying solid seasons, with the Padres holding a 13-3 record and the Cubs sitting at 11-7. San Diego's strong start has them ranked 6th in offense, buoyed by a 1st place standing in team batting average and 3rd in stolen bases. Meanwhile, the Cubs also boast a potent lineup, ranked 3rd overall, with a 7th place batting average and 4th in home runs.

The Padres will send Dylan Cease to the mound, who is projected to pitch an average of 5.6 innings while allowing 2.2 earned runs. Despite a less-than-ideal ERA of 7.98, his xFIP of 3.33 indicates that he has been somewhat unlucky this season and may offer a better performance moving forward. In contrast, Jameson Taillon, also with a 1-1 record after three starts, has an ERA of 6.06 and a below-average strikeout rate of 19.7%. His projections suggest he may struggle against a Padres lineup that has the lowest strikeout rate in MLB.

Adding to the Padres' advantage, their bullpen ranks 3rd in MLB, while the Cubs’ bullpen has struggled, ranking 24th. The Padres are favored with a moneyline of -160, reflecting their stronger overall performance and depth.

As both teams look to establish early dominance in this series, the Padres will aim to capitalize on their offensive prowess and Cease's potential for improvement, while the Cubs will need to find ways to overcome their pitching challenges.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Jameson Taillon has gone to his off-speed and breaking balls 10.1% less often this season (49.4%) than he did last season (59.5%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Typically, hitters like Justin Turner who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Dylan Cease.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Dansby Swanson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Out of all starting pitchers, Dylan Cease's fastball spin rate of 2553.5 rpm is in the 97th percentile since the start of last season.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Gavin Sheets has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (60% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today's game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected lineup for the San Diego Padres in today's game carries an estimated true talent wOBA of .311, which is quite a bit lower than their actual wOBA of .335 this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.95 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 14 games (+9.60 Units / 51% ROI)
• Dylan Cease has hit the Strikeouts Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.85 Units / 40% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago Cubs 3.87, San Diego Padres 4

• Date: April 14, 2025
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jameson Taillon - Cubs
  • Dylan Cease - Padres

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