Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction & Picks 9/9/2024

• Date: September 9, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Hendricks - Cubs
  • Walker Buehler - Dodgers

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Chicago Cubs on September 9, 2024, in what marks the first game of their series. With a solid record of 86-57, the Dodgers have been performing well this season, ranking 3rd in MLB offense. In contrast, the Cubs sit at 73-70, an average mark that reflects their struggles at the plate, where they rank just 14th in offensive performance overall.

Walker Buehler is projected to take the mound for the Dodgers, despite his underwhelming 1-4 record and a troubling ERA of 5.67 this season. However, his 4.68 xFIP suggests he has been a bit unlucky and may improve with better support. On the other side, Kyle Hendricks will pitch for the Cubs, carrying a dismal 3-11 record and an ERA of 6.60. Buehler's projection of allowing 2.8 earned runs is slightly better than Hendricks' 3.3, which aligns with the Dodgers' offensive strength.

In their most recent outings, the Dodgers showcased their offensive prowess in a win over the Cleveland Guardians, while the Cubs defeated the New York Yankees in a low-scoring game. Mookie Betts has been stellar for Los Angeles, leading the way with a .409 batting average over his last week, underscoring the Dodgers' ability to capitalize on weak pitching.

The betting markets reflect this matchup, with the Dodgers favored significantly at -190, indicating a strong likelihood of a win. The Game Total is set at a high 9.5, suggesting expectations for a high-scoring game. With the Dodgers’ potent lineup against a struggling Hendricks, Los Angeles appears well-positioned to take this game and build on their successful season.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Kyle Hendricks's higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this year (51.1% vs. 44.7% last season) figures to work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Ian Happ has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 12.7% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the last week.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Chicago's 92.6-mph exit velocity on flyballs ranks them as the #7 group of hitters in the game this year by this stat.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Out of all SPs, Walker Buehler's fastball velocity of 94.6 mph ranks in the 81st percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Freddie Freeman will probably have the upper hand against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Chicago Cubs has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Max Muncy pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.8% — 97th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game's 8th-deepest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Run Line in 19 of their last 32 games at home (+9.80 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 25 of their last 38 games (+10.55 Units / 23% ROI)
• Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.70 Units / 42% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 5.09 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 6.23

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.