Chicago Cubs vs Kansas City Royals Betting Pick & Preview – 7/27/2024

Chicago Cubs vs Kansas City Royals Details

• Date: July 27, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Shota Imanaga - Cubs
  • Seth Lugo - Royals

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

The Kansas City Royals, enjoying an above-average season with a 57-47 record, host the Chicago Cubs, who are struggling with a 49-56 record, in the second game of their interleague series on July 27, 2024, at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals, who won yesterday's game, will look to extend their momentum against the Cubs.

Kansas City is projected to start Seth Lugo, a right-handed pitcher who has been solid this season. Lugo holds a 12-4 record with an impressive 2.38 ERA, ranking 76th among approximately 350 starting pitchers according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. While Lugo's 3.69 xFIP suggests some luck has been on his side, his control has been a standout feature. He faces a patient Cubs offense that ranks 5th in MLB for drawing walks, but Lugo's low 5.5 BB% could mitigate this advantage for Chicago.

The Cubs will counter with Shota Imanaga, a left-handed pitcher who also boasts an excellent ERA of 2.86 and an 8-2 record. Imanaga ranks 64th in the same Power Rankings, indicating his above-average performance. However, his 3.73 xFIP suggests he too has benefited from some good fortune. Imanaga's low 4.0 BB% will face a Royals offense that ranks 27th in walks, potentially giving Kansas City hitters an edge as they look to capitalize on his strike-throwing tendencies.

Offensively, the Royals rank 12th in MLB and have shown strength in batting average (11th) and stolen bases (8th). Bobby Witt Jr. has been red-hot, batting .583 with a 1.532 OPS over the last week. The Cubs, on the other hand, rank 22nd in offense and have struggled with consistency. Miguel Amaya has been a bright spot recently, hitting .455 with a .993 OPS over the past week.

Kansas City’s bullpen, ranked 16th, will look to hold any lead they might secure, while Chicago’s bullpen, ranked 28th, has been a weak point all season. With the Royals' moneyline set at -120 and an implied win probability of 52%, Kansas City appears to have the upper hand in what is projected to be a closely contested game.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Shota Imanaga's 2436-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 85th percentile among all SPs.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Seiya Suzuki has seen a big gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 95.6-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 92.6-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Seiya Suzuki hits many of his flyballs to center field (42.3% — 100th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB's 4th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Seth Lugo has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 4.9 more adjusted pitches-per-start than league average.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Extreme groundball hitters like Salvador Perez generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Shota Imanaga.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

As a team, Kansas City Royals hitters have not performed well when assessing hitting balls in the launch angle range that tends to best-produce base hits (between -4° and 26°), rating 2nd-worst in the majors.

• Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 34 games (+11.75 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 86 games (+13.90 Units / 15% ROI)
• Seiya Suzuki has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 13 away games (+9.75 Units / 75% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.96 vs Kansas City Royals 5.02

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.