Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction, Odds & Picks – 7/29/2024

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Details

• Date: July 29, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jameson Taillon - Cubs
  • Carson Spiers - Reds

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds will host the Chicago Cubs at Great American Ball Park on July 29, 2024, in the first game of a National League Central matchup. Both teams are having below-average seasons, with the Reds holding a 50-55 record and the Cubs sitting at 51-56. Despite their struggles, this game is expected to be a close contest according to betting markets, with both teams having an implied win probability of 50%.

The Reds will send Carson Spiers to the mound, who is ranked #226 among MLB starting pitchers according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Spiers has a 3-2 record with a 3.83 ERA this season, which is decent, but his projections are less favorable. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, estimates that Spiers will pitch just 4.1 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs, 4.5 hits, and 1.3 walks on average. This could spell trouble against a Cubs offense that, while ranked 23rd overall, is patient at the plate, drawing the 5th most walks in MLB.

Jameson Taillon will start for the Cubs. Taillon has a solid 7-5 record with an excellent 2.96 ERA this season. However, his 4.18 xFIP suggests he has been fortunate and might regress. Projections indicate he will pitch 5.0 innings, allowing 3.0 earned runs, 5.6 hits, and 1.3 walks on average. Taillon's low strikeout rate (19.1 K%) could be advantageous against a Reds offense that strikes out frequently (5th most in MLB).

Offensively, the Reds have an edge in power, ranking 13th in home runs, while the Cubs sit at 23rd. The Reds also lead MLB in stolen bases, a potential game-changer. Elly De La Cruz has been the Reds' standout hitter over the past week, batting .400 with a 1.105 OPS, 8 hits, 5 runs, 1 home run, and 7 stolen bases in 5 games. Patrick Wisdom has been the Cubs' best hitter recently, posting a .375 average and 1.500 OPS with 2 home runs and 5 RBIs in 4 games.

Both bullpens are among the worst in MLB, with the Reds ranked 28th and the Cubs 27th in advanced-stat Power Rankings. This could lead to a high-scoring affair, aligning with the game total set at 9.0 runs. Given the Reds' higher implied team total of 4.50 runs, they may have a slight edge in this tightly contested matchup.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Tallying 17.7 outs per outing this year on average, Jameson Taillon places in the 86th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Pete Crow-Armstrong has suffered from bad luck this year. His .236 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .285.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

It may be best to expect better numbers for the Chicago Cubs offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 4th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Carson Spiers has been lucky this year, putting up a 3.83 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.74 — a 0.91 discrepancy.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Jake Fraley has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (80% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Cincinnati Reds bullpen ranks as the 3rd-worst in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 51 of their last 90 games (+12.40 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 86 games (+9.70 Units / 10% ROI)
• Elly De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 29 games (+8.45 Units / 24% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 5.49 vs Cincinnati Reds 5.38

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