Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals Prediction For 8/31/2024

• Date: August 31, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Javier Assad - Cubs
  • DJ Herz - Nationals

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

The Washington Nationals and Chicago Cubs face off again on August 31, 2024, after the Cubs edged the Nationals in a thrilling 7-6 contest the day prior. Both teams enter this matchup with their sights set on finishing the season strong, though the Nationals (61-74) are currently having a below-average season, while the Cubs (69-66) maintain an average record.

The Nationals will send DJ Herz to the mound, a left-handed pitcher who has shown promise with a solid 3.84 ERA this year, despite a 2-6 record. Herz pitched well in his last outing, throwing five innings without allowing earned runs, which could bode well for his confidence. However, he faces a challenge against the Cubs' lineup, which ranks 14th overall in MLB offense. Herz's projections indicate he may struggle with walks and hits today, which could lead to trouble against a team that can capitalize on mistakes.

On the other side, Javier Assad, a right-handed pitcher with a 3.15 ERA, is looking to build on his recent performance. Although his peripheral stats suggest he might be due for some regression, he has been effective enough to keep the Cubs competitive. Assad's low strikeout rate (19.7 K%) could be a concern, especially against a Nationals offense that strikes out less frequently than most teams (6th least in MLB).

In terms of projections, THE BAT X gives the Nationals a 50% chance to win, slightly above their implied probability of 49%. This suggests that they might have a better chance than the betting markets indicate. With a high implied team total of 4.45 runs, the Nationals could find opportunities to score against a Cubs bullpen that ranks 22nd in MLB. With both teams aiming to capitalize on their offensive strengths, this matchup could be a closely contested affair.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Javier Assad's sinker rate has jumped by 6% from last season to this one (29.8% to 35.8%) .

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

In the last week, Cody Bellinger's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.4% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs' bullpen profiles as the 9th-worst among all the teams in the game.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

DJ Herz was rolling in his last GS and conceded 0 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Joey Gallo has a good chance to have an advantage against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Chicago Cubs has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Joey Gallo pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.3% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 33 of their last 57 games at home (+8.60 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 50 games (+9.50 Units / 15% ROI)
• Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.45 Units / 52% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.91 vs Washington Nationals 4.67

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.