Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals Pick & Prediction – 9/1/2024

• Date: September 1, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jordan Wicks - Cubs
  • Mitchell Parker - Nationals

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

As the Chicago Cubs visit Nationals Park on September 1, 2024, they face off against the Washington Nationals in the third game of their series. The Cubs currently sit at 70-66, having an average season, while the Nationals struggle at 61-75, marking a disappointing year. The Cubs recently notched a victory against the Nationals, which could provide them with momentum heading into this matchup.

The Nationals are projected to start Mitchell Parker, who has had a rocky season with a 7-8 record and a 4.26 ERA. Parker's performance has been inconsistent; he projects to pitch only 4.7 innings today, allowing an average of 2.6 earned runs. His low walk rate (6.4 BB%) could be an advantage against a Cubs offense that ranks 5th in MLB for walks. However, with a Power Ranking of #162, Parker is viewed as one of the weaker starters in the league.

On the other side, the Cubs will send Jordan Wicks to the mound. Wicks, with a 1-2 record and a 4.18 ERA, has shown promise despite his limited starts. His 3.10 FIP suggests that he has been somewhat unlucky this season, and he projects to pitch 5.3 innings today, allowing 2.4 earned runs. This makes him a slightly more favorable option compared to Parker.

Offensively, the Nationals rank 22nd in MLB, struggling particularly with power, as they sit 29th in home runs. In contrast, the Cubs rank 14th overall, giving them a slight edge in this matchup. The projections indicate that the Nationals will score around 4.14 runs, while the Cubs are expected to reach 5.10 runs, which could make a significant difference in the outcome of the game. With the Cubs favored at -130, they look to build on their recent success against the Nationals.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Jordan Wicks has averaged 12.3 outs per outing this year, placing in the 11th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

As it relates to his batting average, Seiya Suzuki has experienced some positive variance this year. His .274 figure has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .237.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

It may be best to expect better numbers for the Chicago Cubs offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 6th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

CJ Abrams is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 98% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals' bullpen projects as the 4th-worst among all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 77 of their last 135 games (+10.93 Units / 6% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 51 games (+10.50 Units / 16% ROI)
• Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 26 games (+9.10 Units / 32% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 5.16 vs Washington Nationals 4.15

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.