Chicago Cubs at San Francisco Giants Pick For 6/27/2024

Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants Details

• Date: June 27, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Shota Imanaga - Cubs
  • Jordan Hicks - Giants

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

On June 27, 2024, the San Francisco Giants will host the Chicago Cubs at Oracle Park in the final game of their four-game series. Both teams are in the midst of below-average seasons, with the Giants holding a 39-42 record and the Cubs at 37-44. The Giants took yesterday's game with a tight 4-3 victory, in a contest that was expected to be closely matched, evidenced by the identical closing Moneyline prices of -110 for both teams.

The Giants will send Jordan Hicks to the mound, who has been solid this season with a 2.82 ERA over 15 starts. His advanced metrics suggest some regression could be coming, as his xFIP is 3.85, but his current ERA still marks him as a reliable arm. Hicks stumbled in his last outing, allowing 5 earned runs on 6 hits and 3 walks over 4 innings. Despite the hiccup, his overall performance has earned him the 51st ranking among starting pitchers this season.

On the other side, the Cubs will counter with left-hander Shota Imanaga, sporting an impressive 1.89 ERA over 14 starts. However, like Hicks, his xFIP of 3.48 indicates he might be pitching over his head. Imanaga was roughed up in his last start, giving up 10 earned runs over just 3 innings. Despite this, he holds a stellar 7-1 win/loss record for the year, reflecting his ability to keep his team in games more often than not.

San Francisco's offense ranks as the 15th best in MLB, showcasing average talent across the board, while the Cubs rank 18th. Notably, the Giants' bullpen is ranked 1st, a stark contrast to the Cubs' bullpen, which sits at 16th. This could be a pivotal factor in a close game.

Offensively, the Giants' Matt Chapman has been their standout performer, while the Cubs' Christopher Morel has been a bright spot for Chicago. Morel has been particularly hot over the last week, hitting .300 with a 1.090 OPS and 2 home runs.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Giants a 56% chance of winning this game, suggesting a potential betting edge as their implied win probability is just 50%. With both teams projected to score around 4 runs, this matchup figures to be another closely contested affair.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

The San Francisco Giants have 9 hitters in the projected offense that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Shota Imanaga today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Christopher Morel is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Out of every team in action today, the strongest infield defense is that of the the San Francisco Giants.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Austin Slater has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.5%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 46 games (+8.35 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 44 of their last 70 games (+15.75 Units / 19% ROI)
• Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 25 away games (+18.20 Units / 34% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.03 vs San Francisco Giants 4.34

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