Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: April 30, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Javier Assad - Cubs
  • Sean Manaea - Mets
• Run Line: Cubs 1.5 -185, Mets -1.5 160
• Money Line: Cubs 110, Mets -130
• Total (Over/Under): 7.5

Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Chicago Cubs - 46%
• New York Mets - 54%

Projected Win %:

• Chicago Cubs - 42.9%
• New York Mets - 57.1%

Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Game Preview & Prediction

In a highly anticipated National League matchup, the New York Mets will host the Chicago Cubs on April 30, 2024, at Citi Field. The Mets, with a record of 14-14, are having an average season, while the Cubs boast an impressive 18-11 record, indicating a great season for them.

The Mets will rely on left-handed pitcher Sean Manaea, who has started five games this year. Manaea holds a 1-1 win/loss record and an ERA of 3.33, which is considered great. However, his 4.58 xFIP suggests that he has been lucky and may not perform as well going forward. On the other hand, the Cubs will start right-handed pitcher Javier Assad, who has a perfect 2-0 record and an excellent ERA of 2.00. Like Manaea, Assad's xFIP of 4.06 indicates potential regression in his performance.

The Mets, with their average offense ranking 14th in MLB, will face the Cubs' average-ranked offense, which sits at 11th in the league. The Mets' offense struggles with a low team batting average, ranking 24th in MLB, but they compensate with an average number of home runs and stolen bases. The Cubs, on the other hand, excel in team batting average, ranking 9th in the league, and stolen bases, ranking 6th.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Mets rank 15th, while the Cubs rank 23rd according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. This suggests that the Mets have a slightly better bullpen than the Cubs.

Considering the team statistics and projections, the Mets are favored to win this game with a projected win probability of 55%, as indicated by their moneyline of -135. The Cubs, with a moneyline of +115, have an implied win probability of 45%.

Both teams have talented hitters, with the Mets relying on Francisco Lindor as their best hitter over the last seven games, and the Cubs looking to Mike Tauchman for offensive production during the same period.

It is important to note that Sean Manaea struggles with control, as he has a high walk rate. This may give the patient Cubs offense, which ranks third in walks, an advantage in drawing walks against him.

With a Game Total set at 8.0 runs, the betting markets expect an average-scoring game. The Mets have an average implied team total of 4.23 runs, while the Cubs have an average implied team total of 3.77 runs.

Overall, this game promises an exciting matchup between two National League teams with different strengths. The Mets will rely on their pitching and average offense, while the Cubs bring a strong offense and solid pitching. With the odds favoring the Mets, it will be interesting to see if they can capitalize on their projected win probability and secure a victory.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Compared to the average pitcher, Javier Assad has been given less leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording an -7.5 fewer adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nico Hoerner in the 97th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

The Chicago Cubs have 4 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Alexander Canario, Mike Tauchman, Christopher Morel, Patrick Wisdom).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Sean Manaea's cutter utilization has jumped by 14% from last year to this one (0.1% to 14.1%) .

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Brett Baty has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (73% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the lineup today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 62 of their last 112 games (+14.30 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 31 games (+7.75 Units / 23% ROI)
• Pete Alonso has hit the RBIs Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+4.55 Units / 27% ROI)

Cubs vs Mets Prediction: Cubs 3.84 - Mets 4.21

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