Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers Pick For 9/10/2024

• Date: September 10, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Shota Imanaga - Cubs
  • Yoshinobu Yamamoto - Dodgers

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

The Los Angeles Dodgers are set to face off against the Chicago Cubs on September 10, 2024, in a pivotal matchup at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers, currently holding a strong 86-58 record, are enjoying a successful season and are looking to bounce back after a surprising 10-4 loss against the Cubs just a day prior. Meanwhile, the Cubs have been treading water with a 74-70 record, sitting in the middle of the pack.

In this game, the Dodgers will send out Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who ranks 12th among MLB pitchers, boasting an impressive 2.92 ERA over 14 starts this season. Although Yamamoto's projection indicates he may struggle with hits and walks today, his overall control and ability to limit earned runs could prove advantageous against the Cubs’ offense, which ranks 15th in the league.

On the other side, the Cubs will counter with Shota Imanaga, who has been solid this season with a 12-3 record and a 2.99 ERA. However, Imanaga's xFIP of 3.70 suggests he may have benefitted from some good fortune thus far. The Dodgers' powerful lineup, which ranks 3rd in home runs with 196 this season, poses a significant threat to Imanaga, who tends to give up fly balls.

According to the leading MLB projection system, the projections favor the Dodgers significantly in this matchup, estimating they will score an average of 5.38 runs. With their offense ranked 3rd overall and the Cubs struggling to keep pace, the Dodgers are positioned as strong favorites to reclaim victory in this series. bettors may find value in wagering on Los Angeles, especially after their unexpected loss yesterday.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Shota Imanaga is an extreme flyball pitcher (40.9% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #5 HR venue in Major League Baseball in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.237) suggests that Seiya Suzuki has had some very good luck this year with his .271 actual batting average.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

It may be wise to expect improved performance for the Chicago Cubs offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 3rd-unluckiest offense in the game this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Given the 0.54 deviation between Yoshinobu Yamamoto's 10.22 K/9 and his 9.68 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the luckiest pitchers in MLB this year in terms of strikeouts and ought to perform worse going forward.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Shohei Ohtani has made big improvements with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 20.6% seasonal rate to 31.3% over the last 14 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Los Angeles Dodgers hitters as a group grade out 4th- in the game for power this year when assessing with their 9.2% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 42 games (+9.70 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 35 games (+10.40 Units / 23% ROI)
• Freddie Freeman has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+10.20 Units / 102% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.15 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.38

Get daily MLB picks here.