Chicago Cubs at Baltimore Orioles Pick & Prediction – 7/10/2024

Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles Details

• Date: July 10, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Shota Imanaga - Cubs
  • Corbin Burnes - Orioles

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

The Baltimore Orioles are gearing up to host the Chicago Cubs on July 10, 2024, for the second game of their interleague series at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Orioles are having a stellar season with a 57-34 record, cementing their place as a top contender. Meanwhile, the Cubs are struggling with a 43-49 record, reflecting a below-average season.

On the mound, the Orioles will send out right-hander Corbin Burnes, who is having an excellent season with a 2.32 ERA and a 9-3 record. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Burnes is the 26th best starting pitcher out of approximately 350 pitchers, highlighting his elite status. In contrast, the Cubs will counter with lefty Shota Imanaga, whose 3.16 ERA and 7-2 record are solid but not quite on Burnes’s level. Imanaga ranks as the 73rd best starting pitcher, making him above average.

Baltimore's offense has been a powerhouse this season, ranking 2nd overall and leading MLB in home runs with 146. The Orioles also boast the 4th best team batting average. This potent lineup poses a significant challenge for Imanaga, who is a high-flyball pitcher (43 FB%). This matchup could swing Baltimore's way as their power hitters capitalize on Imanaga’s tendency to give up flyballs.

On the flip side, the Cubs' offense has been less impressive, sitting at 22nd overall and struggling with a 26th place ranking in team batting average. However, they do rank 9th in team stolen bases, hinting at their potential to manufacture runs even when the long ball isn't an option.

Both teams' bullpens are middling, with the Orioles ranking 12th and the Cubs 14th according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. This suggests that while neither bullpen is elite, they are capable enough to hold leads or keep games close late.

Recent performances highlight Baltimore’s Heston Kjerstad and Chicago’s Ian Happ as the batters to watch. Kjerstad has been on fire with a .417 batting average and a 1.128 OPS over the last week, while Happ has been even hotter, boasting a .500 average and 1.633 OPS, along with 3 home runs and 11 RBIs in six games.

The game total is set at 8.5 runs, reflecting an average expectation for scoring. With the Orioles as the betting favorite at -165 and an implied win probability of 60%, this matchup could heavily favor Baltimore, especially given their offensive firepower and Burnes’s prowess on the mound.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Out of every team playing today, the 2nd-weakest outfield defense is that of the the Chicago Cubs.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Christopher Morel has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (84% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

It may be sensible to expect better numbers for the Chicago Cubs offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 2nd-unluckiest offense in the league this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Tallying 18.8 outs per game per started this year on average, Corbin Burnes falls in the 98th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Jorge Mateo's average exit velocity has decreased lately; his 88.4-mph seasonal average has fallen to 77.2-mph in the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Baltimore Orioles hitters as a unit rank near the top of MLB this year () as far as their 90.1-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 46 of their last 82 games (+16.95 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 47 of their last 80 games (+11.25 Units / 12% ROI)
• Christopher Morel has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 30 of his last 44 games (+14.20 Units / 27% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.18 vs Baltimore Orioles 5.22

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