Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers Pick – 3/28/2025

• Date: March 28, 2025
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tanner Houck - Red Sox
  • Jack Leiter - Rangers

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

As the Texas Rangers prepare to host the Boston Red Sox on March 28, 2025, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions. The Rangers, currently holding a 0-1 record this season, are struggling early on and are projected to have a difficult matchup ahead. In contrast, the Red Sox enter this game with momentum after winning their opener, highlighting a promising start to their season.

Jack Leiter, the Rangers' projected starter, faces a tough challenge against a powerful Red Sox lineup. Leiter, ranked as the 308th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system, has been struggling. He projects to pitch an average of just 4.4 innings while allowing 2.3 earned runs, striking out only 4.8 batters, and permitting a concerning average of 4.0 hits and 1.6 walks. The projections certainly indicate a challenging outing for him.

On the other hand, Tanner Houck, slated to start for the Red Sox, stands in stark contrast to Leiter. Ranking as the 42nd best starting pitcher, Houck is expected to pitch about 5.6 innings and allow 2.5 earned runs. While his strikeout projection sits at a modest 4.9, he brings reliability to the mound that the Rangers desperately need from Leiter.

With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs, betting markets suggest this matchup could be close, reflected in the Rangers' +100 moneyline and the Red Sox's -120. The Rangers have an average implied team total of 4.15 runs, while the Red Sox boast a slightly higher total at 4.35 runs. Given their current forms and projections, the Red Sox appear favored to take this clash as they aim to continue their successful start to the season.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

The Boston Red Sox have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Connor Wong, Wilyer Abreu, Trevor Story).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Hitters such as Marcus Semien with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Tanner Houck who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Texas Rangers bullpen projects as the 5th-worst in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 45 of their last 74 games at home (+12.65 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 62 away games (+6.60 Units / 10% ROI)

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