Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction & Picks 5/20/2024

Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 20, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tanner Houck - Red Sox
  • Taj Bradley - Rays

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

On May 20, 2024, the Tampa Bay Rays will host the Boston Red Sox at Tropicana Field in an American League East matchup. The Rays, with a season record of 25-23, are having an above-average season, while the Red Sox, with a record of 23-24, are having an average season.

The Rays will send right-handed pitcher Taj Bradley to the mound, projected to start the game. Bradley has started two games this year, with a win-loss record of 1-1 and an excellent ERA of 2.45. However, his 3.26 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could regress in future performances. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Bradley is the #73 best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating that he is above average.

Opposing Bradley will be right-handed pitcher Tanner Houck for the Red Sox. Houck has started nine games this season, with a record of 3-5 and an impressive ERA of 2.17. Similar to Bradley, his 2.84 xFIP suggests potential regression in future outings. According to our Power Rankings, Houck is the #27 best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating that he is a great pitcher.

The Rays offense ranks as the 18th best in MLB this season, with a good ranking of 9th in team batting average. They excel in home runs, ranking 4th in the league, as well as stolen bases, where they rank 2nd. On the other hand, the Red Sox offense ranks as the 9th best in MLB, with a great ranking of 3rd in team batting average.

Based on the current odds, both teams have an equal implied win probability of 50%, indicating that the game is expected to be a close one. The Game Total for today's game is set at 7.5 runs, indicating a low-scoring affair.

Overall, this game presents an intriguing matchup between the Rays and the Red Sox. With Taj Bradley and Tanner Houck on the mound, both teams have quality starting pitching. The Rays will rely on their powerful offense, while the Red Sox will look to their strong batting average. It will be a battle of strengths and weaknesses, making for an exciting game for both fans and bettors alike.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

In his last start, Tanner Houck was in good form and posted 7 strikeouts.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Wilyer Abreu is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the strong outfield defense of Tampa Bay (#3-best of all teams on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Boston Red Sox' bullpen grades out as the 5th-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Taj Bradley to throw 85 pitches in today's game (5th-least on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Amed Rosario has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (74% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Isaac Paredes pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (44.4% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 31 games (+13.55 Units / 38% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 25 games (+7.25 Units / 26% ROI)
• Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 35 games (+7.00 Units / 17% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 3.9 vs Tampa Bay Rays 3.48

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