Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 7/19/2024

Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers Details

• Date: July 19, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Pivetta - Red Sox
  • Gavin Stone - Dodgers

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

As of now, the Los Angeles Dodgers are leading the NL West with a stellar record of 56-41 and are in prime position for a playoff run. The Boston Red Sox, also having a strong season, boast a 53-42 record but face stiff competition in the AL East. This Interleague matchup on July 19, 2024, at Dodger Stadium is crucial for both teams.

The Dodgers will send Gavin Stone to the mound. Despite sporting a solid 9-3 win/loss record with a 3.26 ERA, Stone's peripherals suggest potential regression. His 4.08 xFIP indicates he’s been fortunate. Stone's low strikeout rate (19.1%) could be an advantage against a Red Sox lineup that ranks 4th in strikeouts.

Boston counters with Nick Pivetta, who owns a 4-6 record and a 4.18 ERA. However, Pivetta’s 3.45 xFIP suggests he's pitched better than his surface stats indicate. One potential issue for Pivetta is his flyball tendencies (42% FB), which could be exploited by the power-hitting Dodgers, who rank 3rd in home runs.

The Dodgers' offense, ranking 1st overall, is a juggernaut. They are 6th in team batting average and 2nd in walks, which should stress Pivetta despite his good control. Conversely, the Red Sox have a robust lineup as well, ranking 6th overall and 4th in batting average. Their 8th place ranking in home runs means they can also bring the thunder.

On the bullpen front, the Dodgers have a distinct advantage, ranked 9th in Power Rankings. Boston’s bullpen, ranked 25th, has been a glaring weakness and could be a deciding factor late in a close game.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Dodgers are favored with an implied win probability of 56%. Given these factors, the edge goes to Los Angeles not just for their powerful bats but also for their superior bullpen against a vulnerable Red Sox relief corps. Expect a competitive game, but one where the Dodgers' advantages might just carry them to victory.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Nick Pivetta was on point in his last GS and put up 10 strikeouts.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Connor Wong is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 72% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Boston Red Sox have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Wilyer Abreu, Tyler O'Neill, Connor Wong).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Gavin Stone is projected to throw 85 pitches in today's game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 5th-least of all pitchers today.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Shohei Ohtani has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 98.9-mph average in the past week's worth of games to his seasonal 95.2-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers' bullpen projects as the 9th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 28 games at home (+7.60 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 43 away games (+9.85 Units / 19% ROI)
• James Outman has hit the Singles Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 45% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.63 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.25

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.